Atanu Biswas, Professor of statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata
Donald Trump may have accomplished nearly all he set out to do, including gaining the allegiance of some of the wealthiest people on the planet and (almost) absolute political authority. He scripted one of the greatest comebacks in history. But there’s one thing that still remains elusive to him. A Nobel Prize. He fervently desires it to fortify his legacy and to match it with Obama’s.
He has stated repeatedly over the past eight years that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. Even during last year’s campaign rallies. He said on a Las Vegas stage, “They gave Obama the Nobel Prize… He got elected and they announced he’s getting the Nobel Prize. I got elected in a much bigger, better, crazier election, but they gave him the Nobel Prize.” Yes, Obama’s nomination — after only a few months on the job — was criticised by some who claimed he had not made enough of an impact to merit the honour. In 2013, Trump went so far as to tweet that Obama’s honour should be rescinded.
Is Trump now the messiah for peace? In his own way, of course. Trump pledged to apply pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during his recent speech to the World Economic Forum, claiming that a decline in oil prices would put an end to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Could Trump’s followers demand that he be awarded a Nobel Prize in economics for this?
Iran, a Russian ally and OPEC member, might oppose Trump’s suggested strategy. To put an end to the conflict, Trump did, however, also indicate that he would be open to speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin directly. Trump has stated that “Ukraine is ready to make a deal”, although he has not provided specifics on how he would negotiate peace.
He would truly deserve a Nobel Prize if he could end the conflict in Ukraine and bring about a fair, long-lasting peace that would ensure Ukraine’s security. However, Trump has a good chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize for putting an end to the hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He might also stop the conflict in Gaza by using his connections with Saudi Arabia’s rulers and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lastly, if Trump orchestrates the peaceful overthrow of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and the successful inauguration of Edmundo Gonzalez, he may also be eligible for a Nobel Prize.
Thus, Trump will certainly be entitled to a Nobel Peace Prize if he can utilise his influence and authority to bring about peace in any of these situations: West Asia, Europe, the Caucasus, or a peaceful democratic transition in Latin America. Trump’s supporters think he merits the prestigious award because of his earlier achievements with the Abraham Accords, his attempts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and his continued efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Interestingly, Princeton University professor Robert J Goldston claimed in a Fox News piece on January 3 that Trump is in a position to convince the Senate to ratify significant new treaties, save the US treasury more than a trillion dollars, and win three Nobel Peace Prizes by ending three major global crises. These are (i) the rewards for peace and stability in Europe, which includes the war in Ukraine; (ii) the prize for averting a three-way nuclear arms race between China, Russia, and the United States; and (iii) the medal for peace in West Asia, which is the most significant.
Of course, not all of Trump’s actions align with the contemporary notion of “peace”. For instance, like the 19th century imperialists, Trump is attempting to capture Greenland and the Panama Canal while also annexing Canada. Donald Trump is unquestionably a businessman first and foremost. In general, he wants to increase America’s wealth. Trump intends to use trade war as a weapon by imposing high tariffs on a number of nations. For someone aspiring to win a Nobel Peace Prize, his pro-fossil fuel stance and commendation such as “drill, baby, drill” in the face of a global environmental catastrophe might not be the ideal stance.
On his first day back in office, President Trump also signed an executive order temporarily suspending all US foreign assistance programmes for 90 days as they are reviewed to determine whether they align with his policy goals. These programmes aid in health, disaster relief, and pro-democracy initiatives in 204 countries and regions. Suspending such programmes is certainly an act that goes against the contemporary idea of peace in a broader sense, as do withdrawals from the Paris Climate Accord — for a second time — and the World Health Organization.
If Trump wins a Nobel Prize, he would become the sixth US president to earn it, after Theodore Roosevelt in 1906, whom the New York Times called “the most warlike citizen of these United States”, Woodrow Wilson in 1920, Jimmy Carter in 2002, and Barack Obama in 2009.
Previously, Trump certainly received multiple Nobel Peace Prize nominations, primarily for his work in West Asia, his outreach and summitry with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, his role in mediating the historic Abraham Accords, and his attempts to normalise relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Republican congresswoman Claudia Tenney, a member of the House of Representatives, and far-right Norwegian politician Christian Tybring-Gjedde were among his previous nominees. In November 2024, Trump was again nominated for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize by Oleksandr Merezhko, a prominent member of parliament from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party.
Overall, Trump may be contrasting his efforts to promote peace with damning actions to global environmental and health issues. Let’s see who wins in the tug-of-war for the Nobel mission.
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