Watching prime minister Narendra Modi address the US Congress for the second time, and talk to the India diaspora, one thing is very clear: US-India relations are surely deepening and widening. And if one goes by Modi’s speech to the Congress, this is a momentous development that is going to benefit not just the US and India,but the world at large. The cooperation in defence, space and high-tech chip-making may be just the beginning. The potential in many other sectors is enormous.
Modi’s pitch for inclusive and sustainable growth has to be seen in that context. His emphasis that growth has to be pro-people and pro-planet is clear and commendable, and so is his appeal to include the African Union in the G-20 grouping.
But one may be curious to know what has brought the US and India so close at this juncture. Is it the increasing market size of the Indian economy? Is it the growing influence of the diaspora in American business and politics? Or is it the need of the hour to contain Chinese aggression? The short answer may be that it is a mix of all these factors. But my discussions with members of the diaspora living in the US for decades suggests that the China factor may be the most important one behind the current US-India bonhomie.
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China’s meteoric rise on the economic front over the last four and half decades, with accompanying military power, is being seen as threat to global security by many nations. Hence the need to contain its aggressive designs, and the Quad is the only forum with such a goal, comprising Australia, Japan, India, and the US. The current US-India friendship is only an extension of that at a bilateral level.
This makes one thing clear: As nations become rich, they need to be responsible towards global peace and welfare. Else, they will invite counter-balancing by many other countries, which may not be good for world peace and prosperity.
There is no doubt that the US has been a superpower both in economic terms as well as in its military might for quite some time. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US economy, in April 2023, stood at $26.6 trillion, with a per capita GDP of $80,000 at current prices.
In comparison to that, India is way behind, with an overall GDP of $3.74 trillion and a per capita GDP of just $2,600. India’s per capita income is in fact the lowest amongst G20 countries. In PPP terms, however, India’s GDP improves to $13 trillion and its per capita GDP to about $9,000. Thus, the dollar-to-PPP conversion factor is roughly 3.5, which in simple terms means that a dollar in India can buy roughly 3.5 times more goods and services than in the US. Thus, the difference between the US and Indian economies and the welfare of the people of the two nations narrows when we look at these indicators in PPP terms rather than current US dollars.
Interestingly, China, in PPP terms, already has the largest economy ($33 trillion) in the world with a per capita GDP in PPP terms of about $23,380. In current US dollar terms, of course, the Chinese economy stands at $19.37 trillion, next only to the US. And its per capita GDP in current US dollars terms is only $13,720, which means the $-to-PPP conversion factor for the country stands at just just 1.7 as against India’s conversion factor of 3.5.
For world peace and prosperity, it would be best if the three countries work together. But the foundation of any friendship and working relationship is trust, which requires transparency in behaviour and actions agreed upon per the rules of the game.
And it is here that the political system of democracy wins over authoritarian regimes. Not that democracy is without its flaws, be it the US or India, but it is certainly better than military or authoritarian regimes.
And now, with the Ukraine-Russia conflict, global powers are realigning into new groupings. India has the tough task of walking on a very tight rope between Russia and the US. One can only hope that prime minister Modi can calibrate this balancing act and bring dialogue and diplomacy to resolve strong differences, and not be part of the ever widening war that can be suicidal for the existence of humanity on this planet.
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While there is no doubt that border security is paramount to India, as it is to Ukraine or any other country, for the 8 billion people on this planet, food and nutritional security is of equal importance, if not more. This is being threatened by climate change with increasing temperatures.
The poorer nations suffer disproportionately worse. India is no exception, given its large population of 1.4 billion. The US is at the forefront of technologies not just in defence, space, and semiconductors, but also in agriculture and the allied spaces.
One may recall that in the 1960s, when India was struggling to feed its fast-growing population, several state agricultural universities were opened with the support and mentoring by land-grant universities of the US. These universities were instrumental in shaping India’s Green Revolution, although the initial seeds of high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice came from outside.
Today, many of these universities are unable to check the damage to land, water and air that the current practices of agriculture are leading to. Punjab is a classic example where the water table has gotten depleted at an alarming rate. Time has come to rejuvenate our agricultural universities with cutting-edge technologies and policies to cope with climate change, and produce more nutritious food with less land, less water, and less GHG emissions.
I hope in the next round of US-India collaboration, there would be special attempts to include food and agriculture as a core area of cooperation. It has the potential to do good to a large number of people in the developing world, be it in Asia or Africa.
The writer is distinguished professor, ICRIER
Views are personal