November’s demonetisation policy announcement sucked all the air out of the room at the end of last year, but it is now time to recover one’s breath and think about what India must do in 2017. Here is a list of issues that make for a fairly comprehensive policy agenda, without being overwhelming. Of course, each item on the list requires detailed attention, and the danger is always that a combination of political machinations and thinness of technical expertise will prevent good policies from being conceived and implemented. Some of the items on the list receive a lot of media attention, while others only surface occasionally, or only in specialised discourses.
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) remains the single most massive policy reform that India needs, and, while the finish line is close, it has not been crossed. Demonetisation temporarily derailed the complex negotiation between Centre and states, by disrupting state-level economic activity and finances. One hopes this disruption will be repaired soon. Note that the GST relies on an effective use of information technology, and it also addresses tax evasion from two connected angles of incentives and monitoring.
Non-performing assets (NPA) of banks remain an enormous threat to the economy. Japan is an example of how failure to recognise balance sheet problems and clean them up quickly and as efficiently as possible can lead to many years of negative impact on economic activity. The appointment of Viral Acharya as Deputy Governor of the RBI is an extremely positive signal that significant progress will be made on NPA—if the politicians allow. The new bankruptcy law is also part of the long run institutional solution, though much greater attention will need to be paid to improving the internal functioning of Indian banks, which often seem to lack basic expertise (or is it political meddling again?)—again, digital technology can help improve decision-making.
Electric power remains a first-order growth constraint. One cannot build out a digital economy without grid-based electric power. Earlier problems of lack of generation capacity or lack of reliable fuel supplies have receded, but the problems are now concentrated in the distribution part of the power delivery chain. A 2014 World Bank study is still relevant. It said the power sector’s poor performance is caused by “lax governance, a soft regulatory environment, tariffs that have not kept up with costs, power theft, unfunded mandates and pervasive political interference” and called for sweeping reform. State-level distribution companies are the worst offenders.
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Digital infrastructure remains a priority. Both hardware and software in India are, on average, well below the standards needed for the 21st century. The network is also inadequate for future growth. Public investment in digital infrastructure and needed complementary skilling will do much more for supporting not just digital payments, but also access to education, e-commerce, and better functioning of all kinds of markets (transport, jobs, housing, financial services and so on).
Water is a hidden threat to India’s future growth. India has low per capita availability of water compared to most other countries, and does a terrible job of using water efficiently, as well keeping it clean. The problem extends from local agricultural and household uses up to the management of inter-state river basins. Last year saw the introduction of a National Water Framework Bill, which aims to update and harmonise an existing patchwork of old and conflicting laws. This is a good step forward, although at first glance the bill seems to be long on exhortation and good intentions, and short on specific institutional innovations that correct existing distortions in water use and infrastructure planning.
The above is a list of five high-priority areas for reform and general policy attention. They are at various stages of discussion and finalisation, and have different scopes and political challenges, but all will matter greatly for India’s medium-term growth future. The list is not exhaustive, and no list can be, given the complexity of the challenges that India faces. What else matters?
Some additional issues that come to mind include policies that affect how India’s smaller businesses are started, manage as going concerns, and achieve growth: these include regulation, start-up financing, access to working capital, labour market rules, and so on. The infrastructure for growing exports remains a major bottleneck, including ports and regulations, and the idea of coastal export zones remains one with mostly unrealised potential. Tax reform is needed to improve the direct tax take, since many avoid paying income taxes, and, perhaps even more importantly, vast reforms are needed in urban property tax regimes to give cities and towns a better revenue base. Cities also need access to debt markets, and this connects to a pressing need to build out India’s financial markets for all kinds of debt, from corporate and municipal bonds, to short-term financing instruments.
A true test of governance will be if politicians and technocrats can work together to keep their priorities straight, and to design and implement the various policy reforms needed, with persistence and clarity of purpose. A good new year’s resolution for India’s elites!
The author is professor of economics, University of California, Santa Cruz

