By Farooq Wani
The Election Commission of India’s (ECI) announcement to hold assembly elections in the union territory Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) during September and October has reinvigorated political activities that had remained sluggish for the last five years. These elections assume greater significance as they will pave the way for restoration of statehood.
Polling in J&K to elect 90 members of the J&K Legislative Assembly is scheduled to be held in three phases-on September 18, 25 and October 1. The counting of votes will take place on October 4. For the unversed, the last assembly elections in J&K took place November–December 2014, and next month’s polls will be the first since the revocation of the 65-year-long Special Status (as granted under Article 370 of the Constitution) and withdrawal of statehood in 2019.
Given that the Supreme Court had set a deadline to hold elections in J&K on or before September 30, 2024, the ECI’s announcement comes as no big surprise. Nevertheless, it has given an impetus to the political players. National political parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC) have lost no time in sending feelers to and starting dialogue with local parties like National Conference (NC), Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), and other political entities.
There’s an old adage about there being many slips between the cup and the lip. As such, one had expected that announcements and declarations related to political affiliations and seat sharing for the purposes of contesting elections would be low key and made with abundant caution. However, overexcitement seems to have gripped the political fraternity and one keeps hearing all sorts of poll related comments.
Mahatma Gandhi once said, “To safeguard democracy,” a people “must have a keen sense of independence, self-respect and their oneness”. This is indeed an ideal to live by no doubt, provided there’s no compromise on the spirit of democracy and its perceived attendant socio-economic benefits. In the last five years, J&K has to a great extent reflected this Gandhian spirit as is evident to any impartial observer.
The all-important question before Kashmiris now is what kind of politicians they would want as their representatives, and will the lawmakers they elect ensure preservation and enhancement of their current socio-economic status and benefits acquired after decades of violent fissures and irascible mayhem?
It is a no-brainer that the 2024 assembly elections will be contested on three or four issues, viz., Article 370, law and order, terrorism and socio-economic stability. The politico-electoral decibels are already at a high pitch with the BJP leading the way in pushing the Congress against the wall by asking it to categorically state its position on Article 370.
Taking umbrage to NC’s declaration that its first action on coming to power will be to table a Bill to restore Article 370 and Special Status to J&K, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has challenged NC coalition partner Congress to come clean on this issue as well as on nine others, like its position on unrest and terrorism, reservations, encouraging restoration of ties with Pakistan, etc.
The Congress is yet to respond, and for now is just limiting itself to saying that restoring J&K’s statehood is its and NC’s priority. It has shied away from directly saying anything on Article 370, but according to local media, seems inclined to favour the status quo.
During his two-day visit to Srinagar besides increasing his visibility and displaying love for Kashmiri Wazwan (cuisine) and locally made ice cream, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, also did some serious political talking. While he did not express his opinion on revocation of Article 370, he said that restoring statehood and democratic rights of the people of J&K are his, the NC’s and the INDIA bloc’s goal. While Gandhi’s visit to Lal Chowk was meant to show his affinity towards Kashmiris and thus win over them, BJP has used his unrestrained mingling with locals as proof of normalcy brought about by the policies of the Modi led NDA government at the center.
His visit has been high on acquiring feedback from grassroots workers, appropriate messaging, and establishing a connection with both party workers and masses. He may just be getting his political nous right by saying that the “representation of the people of J&K and their statehood is the most important thing.” Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has added an emotional angle by mentioning that Rahul Gandhi is related to the people of J&K “by blood”, but whether this issue translates into votes remains to be seen.
With BJP and Congress engaging in a no-holds-barred verbal duel accusing each other of neglecting the interests of people of Kashmiris and local parties busy fishing in troubled waters, it’s definitely going to be a tough fight.
At present, seat sharing arrangement talks are definitely at a stalemate, with NC insisting on fielding its candidates from the Batamaloo, Uri and Durushahbad assembly constituencies, seats on which the Congress has set its eyes on. Gandhi has reportedly told NC leader and former chief minister Farooq Abdullah that established state Congress leaders should be given the seats from which they wish to contest.
The seat sharing arrangement between Congress and NC for the 90 seats in question is unlikely to be equitable simply because being J&K’s oldest and largest recognised political party, the NC feels it is justified in demanding a greater seat share.
Farooq Abdullah may be the electoral face of the NC, but advancing age and poor health may just impede his bid for yet another political glory. His son, Omar Abdullah, is likely to emerge as the NC-Congress alliance’s chief minister designate as Congress doesn’t have a credible candidate for that position at this time. However, all are not over optimistic about this political alliance and imminent legal and political expert Mohd Maqbool Shah has opined that “Time will tell the difference how long NC – Cong alliances will last.”
On the other hand, the role of PDP, once an important partner of Gupkar Alliance cannot be ignored as the party’s domination in South Kashmir, a strong hold of Mehbooba Mufti led PDP will certainly give a tough fight to Cong- NC alliance. The Cong-NC alliance will also be facing a serious challenge from some new faces who are contesting as independent candidates.
Things have really changed. While hardliner separatist leader Dr G M Hubbi always batted for an independent J&K and refused to take part in elections, his son well-known criminal lawyer son Javed Hubbi has recently joined jailed Eng Rashid’s AIP is likely to contest from Charar e Sharif constituency against two NC – PDP stalwarts .
The situation on the ground in Kashmiri is that locals have by and large welcomed the socio-economic changes to their lives and improved lifestyle and are unlikely to give up on them for the sake of notional benefits. A majority would not want a repeat of the pre-2019 violent times. Political parties should therefore be wise enough not make restoring or non-restoration of Articles 370 and 35A their main electoral plank, for certain sections of local society still strongly feel that these laws dismembered and divided kith and kin irreparably.
Will there be a change in the way law and order is managed? Unlikely! People believe that J&K Police will continue to maintain high vigil and a proactive approach. They also have a belief that the current multi-force security grid in place will prevent the terror ecosystem from raising its ugly head and escalating to menacing levels as in the past. That being said, there’s a concern over the growing separatist threat in the Jammu Division and in other remote pockets of this region.
In the context of J&K, British politician, historian and writer Lord John Dalberg Acton words in 1887 bear repeating, “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” That is what J&K should try to avoid. So, whether the 2024 polls will usher a continuance of an aspirational J&K, only time will tell!
(The author is Editor Brighter Kashmir, Author, TV commentator, political analyst and columnist. farooqwani61@yahoo.co.in)
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