The year 2024 has broken the mould of parliamentary elections in more ways than one. Some pointers to the idiosyncrasies in this long-drawn-out and difficult-to-decipher poll.
1. Till a-month-and-a-half ago, the TINA (there is no alternative) factor in favour of Narendra Modi was overwhelming. The PM’s larger-than-life image completely dominated the poll scape. So what allowed a slight mood shift to raise niggling doubts that this was not quite the one-horse race we all assumed?
2. The BJP shot itself in the foot partly due to overconfidence. Voters were suddenly conscious that if Modiji was winning hands down anyway, they could vent their frustration against incumbent BJP candidates on localised issues. Particularly damaging for the party was the assertion of overzealous BJP MPs, that Modiji needed 400 seats so that the Constitution could be amended. A slick Congress campaign manoeuvre, spread through WhatsApp and word of mouth, falsely implied that changing the Constitution could end reservation for the SCs and OBCs enshrined in Ambedkar’s sacred document. The rumour gained such wide traction that the BJP was forced to rush in for damage control.
3. With taciturn voters and no visible wave on the ground other than, as one commentator succinctly put it, a heat wave, some poll watchers suddenly began totting up poll figures in terms of the arithmetic of seats, rather than the magic of the Modi chemistry. In 2019, the BJP, on its own, won 31 seats more than the 272 halfway mark. Towards the fag end of this campaign, people began speculating whether the ruling party could in fact falter at the finishing line in reaching the 272 target. The assumption was based on the speculation that the BJP will get fewer seats in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Bihar than last time and that it could, additionally, incur setbacks in Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan. If, perchance, the BJP loses more than 31 seats, it will fail to reach a majority on its own. The ruling party, however, is confident that what it loses compared to the last time in some states will be adequately compensated by gains in others like Odisha, Telangana, Andhra and West Bengal (even if Hindutva poster boy K Annamalai’s optimistic predictions for Tamil Nadu are likely to be a damp squib). Most BJP loyalists are confident of winning over 300 seats and claim that the growing number of doubting Thomases will have egg on their faces come June 4. Certainly, the BJP’s hired in-house psephologist looks supremely confident.
4. Which is why Modi’s last-minute, almost frenetic campaign appeared nervous and unnecessary. He often diverted his campaign to an undignified and divisive level of discourse. Fearmongering about Muslim birth rates, snatching of mangalsutras, talk of mujras and stolen faucets, and ill-chosen words against respected rivals hardly seemed helpful to his campaign. The party faithful maintain that there is nothing uncharacteristic about Modi’s campaign tone this year and that scanning past election campaign records will reveal a similar story of Modi leaving no stone unturned when he lashes out at rivals. But seasoned poll watchers feel the stridency of his 2024 tone has reached new depths.
5. One of the BJP’s great strengths has been its shrewdness in stitching alliances that boost its poll prospects. The reverse seems to be unfolding this time. Old allies like Shiv Sena (UBT) and Akali Dal have departed with bitterness. New partners like Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are fighting to establish legitimacy. The scandal-hit Deve Gowda family, and a much-discredited Nitish Kumar could be liabilities rather than assets. Formerly friendly neutral parties led by Naveen Patnaik and Jagan Mohan Reddy have been unnecessarily alienated.
6. Some see hitches in the usually streamlined, coordinated BJP poll machinery. Election prabharis hastily selected, some with too much on their plate, appeared adrift at times. After the faux pas about changing the Constitution statements, an edict was issued to all to not speak unnecessarily to the media. Several powerful state leaders avoided giving interviews, unlike the past. No one wanted to be accused of stealing the limelight.
7. The outcome will eventually boil down to Modi’s magical chemistry with the people versus the arithmetic of possibly shedding seats due to anti-incumbency. Some wistful Opposition leaders believe that even a third element may come to play, who could outmanoeuvre best in a tight corner. The advantage lies with the BJP, which has a reputation for its smooth ability to stitch together a winning combination, even when the chips are down.
8. Whatever the final outcome, 2024 will go down as a watershed moment of sorts. It could possibly change forever the discourse on the functioning of our democracy, reservation, autonomy of constitutional bodies, expanding welfarism and increasing institutionalising of populist measures.