By Anita Inder Singh
For Russia, which Delhi has often lauded as a friend that has never hurt India’s interests, and China, with which it has a border dispute and also its second-largest trade relationship (after the US), it is vital that India and Pakistan avoid war because of the chain of events following the Pakistan-instigated terrorist attack on Pahalgam. India has retaliated with missile attacks in Operation Sindoor.
Together with the other three permanent members of the United Nations (UN) Security Council they have condemned the terrorist assault and grilled Pakistan, currently a non-permanent member of the Council, on its role in launching or aiding the attack.
But what can India expect from Russia, China, and the US at a stronger individual level? Russia and China are its partners in BRICS. America is not always an obliging friend. Pakistan and India are members of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which is silent on their ongoing conflict: Beijing itself has taken the diplomatic lead.
There are good reasons for the stances of China, Russia, and the US. China has on occasion blamed Pakistani-trained extremists in its north-western Xinjiang province. Russia has feared that extremists could destabilise its Central Asian neighbourhood. The US experienced a terrorist attack on 9/11 in 2001.
The UN holds that targeting civilians is unacceptable and those responsible must be brought to justice through credible and lawful means. A military confrontation must be avoided. If the dispute comes to decision-making in the UN Security Council, China will veto any resolution against Pakistan, while Britain and France might veto a resolution against India. The stance of President Donald Trump’s America remains unpredictable, given that he thinks both countries have been at daggers drawn for more than 1,000 years.
All of them want de-escalation of the conflict, as India revokes the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), which allocated 80% of the rivers’ waters to Pakistan. Reacting strongly, Pakistan told the UN Security Council that this was an act of war because water is life, not a weapon. Islamabad claims that these rivers sustain over 240 million Pakistanis.
Russia has stressed a settlement on the basis of the 1972 Simla Agreement, in which India and Pakistan agreed to settle their disputes through negotiations, and the 1999 Lahore Declaration which entreated both countries to avoid the use of nuclear weapons. Moscow, like Beijing and Washington, hopes for de-escalation.
Beijing is on one side playing the peace-loving diplomat by affirming that India and Pakistan are, and will always remain, each other’s neighbours and China’s neighbours. So, it has urged both sides to act in the larger interests of peace and stability.
While China has advocated an independent investigation into the Pahalgam attack and its suspects, it has also proclaimed that it will help Pakistan to uphold its sovereignty and security interests. Probably to show support for its all-weather friend, Pakistan, China has moved troops in its side of Ladakh, to what it calls Aksai Chin. This area comprises the territory of the Chinese-administered sector of Kashmir that is claimed by India as part of its Ladakh Union Territory. Consequently, the Indo-Pakistani conflict has worrisome strategic aspects if it sparks war. If it comes to a war crunch India may find itself confronting both Pakistan and China.
Beijing’s support for Islamabad is strengthened by Pakistan’s membership of China’s Belt and Road Initiative since 2015. China has poured $46 billion of investment into Pakistan via Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. It has connected Pakistan’s deep-sea ports of Gwadar in Balochistan and Karachi in Sindh to its Xinjiang Uighur region by overland routes. Thousands of miles of roads and railways have been built, and Pakistan’s capacity for power generation has also increased dramatically.
Pakistan is indebted to China but it simultaneously buys more than 81% of its military supplies from China. They include submarines and fighter jets, which illustrate some of the ways in which China has been able to create a shift in regional security dynamics. All the more so since it is also the largest arms retailer to India’s neighbours Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. China is also the top trading partner of all three countries and given its superior economic and military strength, a tough competitor to India, even in the latter’s immediate Indian Ocean neighbourhood.
The US supports India’s right to defend itself. But Trump has advised India and Pakistan to sort out what he has labelled as their 1,500-year-old problem, adding that it could probably be “longer than that”. He has reiterated the strong support of the US government to India’s fight against terrorism. However, Delhi should remember that the US has been selling the F-16 aircraft to Pakistan for several years and that Trump has stressed his very good personal ties with the leaders of both countries. Grappling with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Trump’s reluctance to engage America in South Asia is clear from his advice that India and Pakistan should “figure it out” themselves.
India has perceived Russia as its reliable friend since they signed their treaty of friendship in 1971. But Russian and Pakistani companies are building a gas pipeline which will be called Pakistan Stream gas project, or the North-South gas pipeline. The strategically important pipeline will extend from Karachi on the Arabian Sea coast to power plants in the northeastern province of Punjab.
All told, India’s friends support its fight against terrorism, but their national interests are unlikely to dictate taking sides if it comes to a war between India and Pakistan.
The writer is founding professor, Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, New Delhi.
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