By K Yatish Rajawat & Dev Chandrasekhar
As we enter 2024, the world is grappling with the devastating impacts of climate change, including wildfires, floods, and droughts. The scientific consensus is clear: immediate action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the worst consequences of global warming. COP28 is at an important tipping point as successive conferences have failed to meet their targets and, in the irony of ironies, is now being hosted and presided over by the fossil fuel industry.
Since 1995, the Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings have served as a platform for international collaboration on climate change. The ‘parties’ are the 197 nations and territories around the world that signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, these gatherings have often fallen short of expectations, with governments and corporations making promises that see little action.
COP27, held at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November 2022, was no exception. While some positive steps were taken, such as the establishment of a loss and damage fund for developing nations affected by climate change, the conference lacked significant progress in reducing fossil fuel usage and addressing the needs of the most vulnerable countries. Similar disappointments have plagued previous COPs. COP26, held in Glasgow in 2021, was hailed as a pivotal moment in the fight against climate change. However, it concluded without concrete action plans and only vague commitments. COP25, held in Madrid in 2019, failed to agree on specific funding targets for climate finance and made limited headway in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. COP24, held in Katowice, Poland, in 2018, despite adopting the Paris Agreement rulebook, struggled to establish ambitious long-term emissions reduction targets and make substantial progress in decreasing reliance on fossil fuels.
Looking ahead to COP28, set to take place in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in a few days, the host country’s status as a major oil producer is a depressing concern. Questions of greenwashing are amplified by the conflict-of-interest appointment of Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, as COP28 president. It is the first time that a corporate CEO, that too of a fossil fuel company, is heading the conference. The Center for Climate Reporting has reported extensively on the efforts made by ADNOC to rebrand the oil company as a green company including dropping “oil” from its name.
COP28 should be an opportunity for the world to get fossil fuel corporations to turn their pledges into action. The role of phasing out fossil fuels cannot be overemphasised. But, as Christian Fugueres, the former head of UN Climate Change has asserted, this might change: the goalposts may be shifted in COP28 to frame carbon capture and storage as the primary agenda instead of the phasing out of fossil fuels.
COP28 might be the U-turn where the fossil fuel industry succeeds in getting the world’s attention and having targets shifted in such a manner that fossil fuel emissions leave the climate lexicon once again. The real danger is that the inconclusiveness of COP and its downsliding might gather faster pace after COP28 unless civil society organisations raise louder hell to prevent it. This fear is being voiced by many ahead of the conference.
One critical task for COP28 is evaluating and implementing the global stocktake, which assesses progress on climate change mitigation efforts. Released in September 2023, the stocktake report paints a grim picture, projecting global warming to reach 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. While this is an improvement from the 4 degrees projected a decade ago, it remains far from the Paris Agreement’s targets of keeping global warming well below 2°C, ideally at 1.5°C.
But for COP28, the challenge is more than just setting lofty targets. The conference also grapples with financial concerns, notably the setup of a loss and damage fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate change, and meeting the $100 billion climate finance pledge from higher-income countries to their lower-income counterparts.
Governments, in particular, must play a more active role in setting and executing their national climate plans. Developed nations’ governments that have burdened the majority world with their millennia-long emissions should express clearly, in concrete “legally binding” terms, the what, how, and where of honoring their climate finance pledges, providing financial support for countries most affected by climate change.
Similarly, large corporations must commit to reducing their carbon footprints and investing more in renewable energy. Given their influence, these companies can shape global climate actions, from advocating for stricter environmental regulations to promoting sustainable business practices. The world is facing an existential crisis. Despite numerous international conferences and agreements aimed at addressing this pressing issue, the situation continues to deteriorate. While it’s highly probable that COP28 will follow the pattern of previous conferences, the world must push for an opportunity for meaningful change.
COP28 holds the potential to be a transformative moment in the global fight against climate change. Instead of playing petty spoilsports and disrupting the progress made until now, the global fossil fuel industry should envision itself as the force that puts short-term self-interest aside and works proactively for the world’s good. The narrative that fossil fuels are needed for developing countries and climate activists are out of touch has dominated and diluted the COP agenda for decades, and has to be put to rest.
The opportunity is before us. We must seize it, working together. The unfolding climate catastrophe demands action—failure is not an option.
(The authors are researchers at the Delhi-based think and do tank Centre for Innovation in Public Policy)