By Md. Muddassir Quamar

The 16th BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, on 22-24 October 2024, took place at a time when the Middle East is witnessing heightened tensions with fear of a widened regional conflict between Israel and Iran and its ‘axis of resistance.’ It was inevitable for the BRICS, which now includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates as full members, and although Saudi Arabia’s induction into the group remains uncertain, to discuss and deliberate upon the developments in the Middle East. While the BRICS has traditionally focused more on economic and developmental issues, in recent years, it has focused on expanding the grouping and bringing a greater emphasis on geopolitical developments, which reflect the changes in the international order.

The world is incrementally witnessing a multipolar order where the emerging big powers and an increasing number of middle powers challenge the ability of the traditional big powers to set the global agenda. Countries such as Russia, which remained preoccupied with domestic affairs for a while after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, have, in the 21st century, become increasingly inclined to engage in global politics and safeguard its interests. Similarly, China and India’s economic rise is accompanied by the two Asian powers demanding a greater say in matters of international concern. Besides regional powers such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt in the Middle East, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya in Africa, and the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in East Asia have become more assertive in conducting their international affairs and dealing with institutions setting the global agenda.

The formation of BRIC in 2009, the induction of South Africa in 2010 to make it BRICS, and the expansion in 2023-2024 to induct Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE (Argentina, invited to join initially, declined while Saudi Arabia is still to take a final decision on joining) is part of the effort to reflect on the changed global realities. At one level, this was an effort to bring together the important actors in the Global South to develop consensus on matters of international concern. At another level, the objective is to have a greater say in devising parameters on international issues and influence outcomes through greater coordination among Global South countries.

The expansion of BRICS into BRICS Plus and greater discussions on security and strategic matters have made the multilateral organization bigger and impossible to ignore. Notably, since the expansion led to the induction of three major MENA actors into the BRICS fold, matters related to the Middle East have acquired greater significance for the BRICS Plus. In this context, the BRICS Summit 2024 did take a detailed view of the developments in the Middle East.

The Kazan Declaration titled Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security, issued on 23 October 2024, did focus on the developments in the Middle East with some detail. While regretting the loss of civilian lives, the worsening humanitarian crisis in the Occupied Palestinian Territories due to the ongoing military actions of Israel. It further noted the need for immediate ceasefire, release of all hostages and adherence to UN resolutions to resolve outstanding matters without resorting to terrorism and military actions. The alarm expressed by the BRICS Plus nations on the security situation in the Middle East and need to exercise constraint underlined the growing international unease over the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip, its expansion into Lebanon and the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, and the consequent humanitarian crisis. The leaders of the BRICS Plus nations emphasized the need for de-escalation and peaceful resolution of conflicts during their engagements.

However, the question that remains is whether the BRICS Plus has the power and influence to influence the outcomes in international affairs, especially as the United Nations has failed to develop any consensus among its members on how to go about the task of de-escalation and ensuring safety, security and peace for all. While BRICS has increasingly emerged as a major organization representing the voice of the Global South, differences among member states hinder consensus on matters of international concern.

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The ongoing war in the Middle East, which began after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attacks in Israel and that has now expanded into Lebanon, while a military showdown between Iran and Israel appears increasingly inevitable, is one such matter where any consensus eludes the global community. The US and its international allies, the primary backers of Israel and its right to defense, have failed to control Israeli actions despite their discomfort about the way Israel has gone about its military operation in the Gaza Strip. On the other hand, the major BRICS members, Russia, China and India, do not have a similar view of the developments. While Russia and China have been more open to criticizing Israeli actions, India’s approach has been balanced and focused on underlining the unacceptability of terrorism and the need for finding a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Moreover, countries such as Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia (that attended the Kazan Summit while not yet formally joining the grouping) have a different view of the situation in the Middle East than fellow BRICS Plus member, Iran, and fear that the latter is focused on military expansionism to establish its regional hegemony. Hence, they look towards the US and other global powers to balance Iran, with only a limited degree of success. Iran, on the other hand, has shared tense relations with the US and its international allies, including Israel, for a long time and matters have turned for worse since the unilateral US withdrawal from the JCPOA under the Trump administration in 2018. Iran and Israel have also engaged in a proxy war in Syria and Iraq for years as Israel fears the expanding Iranian military presence in the two countries.

Tel Aviv views Tehran as the primary backer of organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah that pose serious security threats to Israel from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, respectively. The fear became a reality on 7 October. Hence, the Israeli political and military leadership, which has over the years become more hardliner, has gone about decimating the leadership and capabilities of the two organizations with some success. Inevitably, the Israeli military actions in the Gaza Strip, a small and densely populated enclave, have caused a humanitarian crisis of immense magnitude. Still, the Israeli thought process is focused on completely neutralizing the security threat, even at the cost of immense international criticism.

As the developments in the Middle East continue to be a cause of concern, the question remains: can BRICS play the constructive role of convincing the regional state and non-state actors to explore a negotiated solution instead of a military and armed solution? For a long time, the Middle East Peace Process led by the US and the quartet of the United Nations, European Union, the US and Russia failed to achieve this objective. That the US is the only country that has influence across the actors involved in the conflict and failed to bring a negotiated outcome is a telling story.

BRICS Plus, representing the voices of the Global South, however fractured it might be, does have some credibility regarding matters of international affairs. But at a time when many of its members are themselves involved in a war or have been accused of adopting a belligerent approach towards their smaller neighbors or supporting armed non-state actors to target their adversary, it is difficult to hope that the grouping can exert any influence or play the mediator in de-escalating the situation in the Middle East.

The author Md. Muddassir Quamar is an Associate Professor of Middle East studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views are personal.