By Madhav Sheth
The numbers look promising again. India’s smartphone shipments rose 8 per cent by volume and 18 per cent by value in Q2 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. The average selling price is now the highest ever recorded. To many, that signals maturity. I see something else.
The Reserve Bank of India’s latest data shows per-capita income rose only about 7 per cent last year. When incomes rise modestly but smartphone prices surge more than twice as fast, affordability becomes the casualty. The market is not simply moving up. It is leaving many behind.
What is being called premiumisation is, in fact, pressure. The top of the market is thriving, but the foundation is eroding. Millions of users who still rely on basic phones are being priced out of participation in the digital economy.
Inside boardrooms, graphs that point upward are often mistaken for progress. But growth that excludes new users is not sustainable. A higher ASP can make the market appear richer while the number of active buyers quietly shrinks.
China built its strength differently. Throughout the 2010s, more than half its smartphones sold for under USD 300. That affordable base created loyalty and scale long before the shift to premium devices. India seems eager to skip that stage, betting that aspirational pricing will automatically create aspiration itself. It rarely does.
The next 200 million Indians who will shape this market are not seeking luxury. They want durability, reliability, and value. Many are ready for their first smartphone, not their next upgrade. When wages stagnate and devices climb in cost, that transition stalls, and with it, national digital inclusion.
The solution lies not in cutting features or subsidising prices but in designing smarter economics into the product. Devices must last longer, software must remain optimised, and servicing must be transparent. Local supply chains must be built for efficiency rather than dependency.
Technology should expand opportunity, not price it out of reach. If affordability continues to slip, India’s smartphone boom could turn into a bottleneck.
True progress is not when the average phone gets costlier. It is when every Indian can afford one that it endures.
The author is Founder of NxtQuantum Shift Technologies and CEO of Ai+ Smartphone. Views are personal.