8th Pay Commission: With the 7th Pay Commission term of 10 years set to end on December 31, 2025, the focus has now shifted to the progress around 8th Central Pay Commission. The two most talked-about issues around the 8th Pay Commission are when its recommendations will be implemented and how much salary hike employees can expect based on the new fitment factor.
Now, with the Terms of Reference (ToR) finalised and the panel under Justice Ranjana Desai having begun its work, discussions around salary hikes, revised basic pay and arrears have gathered pace among central government employees and pensioners. While official confirmation on the exact implementation date is still awaited, most estimates now point to a delayed rollout—likely around early 2028, instead of January 2026 as initially expected.
This delay, however, could mean substantial arrears, especially if the pay commission recommendations are implemented with retrospective effect.
So, how much arrears could an employee realistically expect? Let’s break it down in simple terms.
What is the current status of the 8th Pay Commission?
The 7th Pay Commission completes its term on December 31, 2025. To ensure continuity, the government has already notified the 8th Pay Commission and approved its Terms of Reference (ToR). The commission has been given 18 months to submit its report.
Going by past trends, once the report is submitted, the government usually takes another 3–6 months to examine, approve and notify the recommendations. This makes late 2027 or early 2028 a more realistic timeline for implementation.
While no official date has been announced yet, this timeline has been echoed by several analysts and reports from leading financial publications.
How much salary hike is expected?
Market analysts, including Ambit Capital, have projected that the 8th Pay Commission could bring a salary and pension hike of around 30–34% for central government employees.
A key factor behind this expected jump is the fitment factor — the multiplier used to revise basic pay. Reports suggest the fitment factor could range between 1.83 and 2.46, with many estimates clustering around 2.28.
As with previous pay commissions, Dearness Allowance (DA) is expected to be merged into basic pay before the new structure is applied.
Example: How salary could change for a minimum basic pay employee
Let’s take the case of a Level 1 employee with a current basic pay of Rs 18,000.
At present, after adding DA and allowances, this employee earns a gross salary of around Rs 35,000 per month.
If the 8th Pay Commission leads to a 34% overall hike, the revised gross salary would work out to approximately Rs 46,900 per month
That means an increase of nearly Rs 11,900 per month.
How much arrears could be paid if implemented in early 2028?
If the 8th Pay Commission is implemented in January 2028, with retrospective effect from January 2026, employees would be entitled to 24 months of arrears.
In the above example: Monthly increase: Rs 11,900
Arrears period: 24 months
Total arrears: Rs 2.85 lakh
So, a minimum basic pay employee could receive around Rs 2.8–3 lakh as arrears, purely from the salary revision.
For employees at higher pay levels, the arrears amount would naturally be much higher.
Why arrears matter as much as the hike itself
Historically, arrears have been one of the biggest financial windfalls for government employees during pay commission rollouts. Even though delayed implementation often causes frustration, the backdated payout partially offsets the wait.
In the case of the 7th Pay Commission, employees received sizeable arrears when the recommendations were implemented in 2016, even though the commission had been constituted much earlier.
What else will the 8th Pay Commission review?
The 8th Pay Commission’s mandate goes beyond basic pay revision. It will also review:
-Allowances such as HRA and transport allowance
-Pension and Dearness Relief structure
-Gratuity and retirement benefits
-Pay parity and incentive structures
All these changes will be finalised only after the commission submits its report and the government gives its approval.
What should employees watch out for now?
For now, employees should keep an eye on fitment factor announced in the final report, implementation date approved by the government, budget allocation for salary hikes and arrears, and treatment of DA reset under the new pay structure.
Until the 8th Pay Commission is implemented, DA and Dearness Relief will continue under existing rules.
Summing up…
If the 8th Pay Commission is implemented in early 2028, central government employees could see a 30–34% salary hike along with two years’ worth of arrears. For a minimum basic pay employee, this could translate into a one-time arrears payout of nearly ₹3 lakh.
However, the final numbers will depend on the fitment factor, allowances structure and the exact implementation date, all of which will only be known once the commission submits its report and the government takes a final call.