Oil prices have been sliding. Brent crude, which averaged US$ 79 per barrel in FY25, is now hovering at US$ 60–66.
A large part of this is weighed down by global tariff wars, OPEC+ production surprises, and growing fears of a supply surplus.
On paper, this should spell trouble for India’s upstream oil companies and make downstream players look like easy winners. But India’s oil market has rarely followed the script.
Sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, which could wipe out close to 1 million barrels per day of supply, have the potential to swing prices back toward the US$ 70 mark.
Meanwhile, even if Brent crude stays weak, history suggests governments don’t just hand over the savings to consumers. They tend to raise excise or cap retail price cuts.
In short, the winners and losers in this game aren’t always where you’d expect.
While some investors might steer clear of oil stocks right now, a closer look reveals a few companies that aren’t just surviving they’re quietly positioning for long-term growth.
#1 ONGC
First on our list is ONGC.
ONGC is India’s largest oil and gas producer, with a legacy of discovering 8 out of the country’s 9 producing basins. It’s the backbone of India’s energy ecosystem, running upstream, refining and petrochemical operations through subsidiaries like MRPL, HPCL, and OPaL.
By all logic, ONGC should be struggling. Global oil prices have cooled, hurting upstream earnings and dragging down profit from Rs 306.6 billion (bn) to Rs 291.6 bn in the first nine months of FY25.
But ONGC isn’t standing still. The company has reversed its multi-year production decline. It has ramped up oil and gas output from fields like KG-98/2, with 13 wells now flowing at 35,000 barrels per day and 3 MMSCMD of gas.
Additionally, it is also betting big on Mumbai High, partnering with BP to lift oil and gas recovery by up to 60% over the next decade.
ONGC Financial Snapshot (2020-24)
| 2019-2020 | 2020-2021 | 2021-2022 | 2022-2023 | 2023-2024 | |
| Revenue Growth (%) | -6.1% | -22.4% | 57.6% | 28.4% | -5.4% |
| Operating Profit Margin (%) | 14.5% | 16.5% | 16.6% | 12.7% | 18.0% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 2.7% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| Return on Capital Employed(%) | 8.4% | 11.0% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 20.4% |
| Return on Equity (%) | 5.4% | 10.0% | 20.5% | 12.6% | 18.4% |
Source: Equitymaster
Financially, ONGC has delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 6.7% and profit CAGR of 11% between 2020–2024. The company’s 5-year average Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) stood at 12.6% and 15%, respectively.
ONGC’s profit slipped in FY24 as lower oil prices and higher depreciation offset production gains. But FY25 has seen a turnaround, with oil output up 1% and gas volumes stabilizing on the back of KG-98/2 and Mumbai High.
ONGC’s exploration is on overdrive. The company bid for 19 blocks under OALP IX and is unlocking new acreage as no-go areas open up.
Meanwhile, it’s laying the groundwork for the future with ONGC Green, targeting 10 GW of renewable capacity and 1 MTPA of green hydrogen by 2030.
Even as oil prices wobble, ONGC’s Rs 3.7 tn capex pipeline, rising gas realisations and steady transition into clean energy give it plenty of fuel to keep growing.
#2 Oil India
Next on our list is Oil India.
Oil India is the country’s second-largest national oil explorer, with deep roots in Assam and an expanding footprint across India’s energy landscape.
It’s a key cog in India’s energy security machine, from crude oil to natural gas, to the fast-growing Numaligarh Refinery, On paper, Oil India should be struggling.
While average crude realisations slipped to US$ 73.8 per barrel in Q3 FY25 from over US$ 84 per barrel a year ago, putting pressure on upstream profits, the company keeps pushing forward.
Production is inching up. Oil output rose 4.1% in the first nine months of FY25, while gas production ticked up 2.9%. The Numaligarh Refinery expansion — tripling capacity from 3 to 9 MMTPA — is over 70% complete and should be commissioned by December 2025.
Meanwhile, Oil India has broken new ground by striking oil in the north bank of the Brahmaputra for the first time in decades, opening up a whole new frontier.
Oil India Financial Snapshot (2020-24)
| 2019-2020 | 2020-2021 | 2021-2022 | 2022-2023 | 2023-2024 | |
| Revenue Growth (%) | 33.7% | -5.6% | 44.1% | 36.0% | -12.0% |
| Operating Profit Margin (%) | 29.0% | 32.0% | 41.0% | 42.0% | 39.0% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 26.9% | 23.5% | 25.9% | 27.3% | 22.0% |
| Return on Capital Employed(%) | 14.2% | 12.7% | 22.0% | 27.0% | 17.7% |
| Return on Equity (%) | 19.2% | 17.7% | 24.8% | 28.5% | 18.0% |
Source: Equitymaster
Financially, Oil India has delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 15.8% and net profit CAGR of 16.6% between FY20–FY24. Over the same period, its average ROE stood at 20.2% and ROCE at 17.8%, impressive for a company navigating declining fields and volatile crude prices.
Looking ahead, the north-eastern gas grid and new well gas pricing promise a step-up in volumes and margins. The company is also aggressively exploring high-potential areas like Barekuri and ramping up seismic surveys to bring new discoveries into production.
Even as oil prices cool, Oil India’s ramping output and disciplined capex of Rs 230 bn on the NRL and gas projects ensure it has plenty of fuel to keep the growth engine running.
#3 Chennai Petroleum Corporation
Last on our list is Chennai Petroleum Corporation (CPCL).
Chennai Petroleum Corporation is one of India’s leading refiners. A subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation and a crucial player in South India’s fuel supply chain, the company is a key contributor to the nation’s energy basket, with a refining capacity of 11.5 MMTPA.
On the surface, Chennai Petroleum should be under pressure. Global refining margins have nearly halved, with GRMs sliding from US$ 8.64 per barrel to US$ 4.22 per barrel in FY25. But CPCL has proved resilient.
The company clocked a record crude throughput of 11.6 MMT in FY24, running at 111% capacity utilization, beating its own past records. It also achieved its lowest-ever fuel and loss at 8.81% and a stellar Energy Intensity Index of 87.5, reflecting relentless operational efficiency.
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Financial Snapshot (2020-24)
| 2019-2020 | 2020-2021 | 2021-2022 | 2022-2023 | 2023-2024 | |
| Revenue Growth (%) | -39.9% | 93.8% | 77.1% | -13.4% | -10.1% |
| Operating Profit Margin (%) | 9.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Return on Capital Employed(%) | 16.0% | 20.0% | 45.0% | 35.0% | 4.0% |
| Return on Equity (%) | 16.0% | 45.3% | 54.5% | 31.1% | 2.5% |
Source: Equitymaster
Financially, Chennai Petroleum has delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 11.9%, with an average ROE of 29.4% (though skewed by exceptional years) and ROCE averaging 23% across FY20–FY24.
FY25 was challenging for Chennai Petroleum as its gross refining margins (GRMs) halved to US$ 4.22/bbl from US$ 8.64/bbl last year, driven by weaker global product cracks. Additionally, inventory losses and rising debt levels weighed on profitability despite strong capacity utilisation.
Looking ahead, the Rs 363.5 bn Cauvery Basin Refinery project (in JV with IOC) will add 9 MMTPA of capacity, with a 6% petrochemical index, marking CPCL’s entry into high-value petrochemicals.
The upcoming Lube Oil Base Stock (LOBS) project and ongoing debottlenecking upgrades will further lift margins, with expected annual capex of Rs 20–30 bn including major projects.
Even as global product cracks narrow, Chennai Petroleum’s focus on high-value products, premium-to-Singapore GRMs and its ESG push, including trial runs in sustainable aviation fuel, ensure the company has enough firepower to stay in the growth race.
Conclusion
The road ahead is anything but predictable.
With a surplus of 0.5 mmbpd expected in 2025 and more in 2026, low oil prices may hand short-term gains to downstream players like OMCs and city gas distributors.
For upstream giants like ONGC and Oil India, though, the earnings risk is real. For every US$ 5/bbl drop in Brent, knocks 8–10% off EPS.
Even so, these companies aren’t just clinging on hope of oil prices recovering. They are leaning into production growth, exploration and energy transition bets.
For investors, the key will be to watch how well these companies execute on their growth plans, manage costs, and adapt to shifting market dynamics.
By staying selective and focused, investors can tap into the long-term potential of these energy players while keeping an eye on the inherent risks of the commodity cycle.
Happy investing.
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