Reliance Industries’ share price declined 2.6% to an intra-day low of Rs 1,437 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock was among the major five losers in the Nifty 50 and a major mover of the index. Here’s a detailed analysis of what brokerage houses said after reporting Q1FY26 earnings.
Nomura on Reliance Industries: Tariff hikes for Jio to be key growth triggers
Nomura has reiterated Buy on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 1,600 per share. This implies about 8% upside from current levels. However, they have trimmed the FY27 EBITDA estimates by 3% largely after factoring in
-Lower EBITDA for the digital business on slightly moderate APRU growth estimates
-Slightly lower estimates for the oil to chemical business segment
The stock currently trades at 12.1x FY27 EV/EBITDA and 23.3x PE, respectively. Going forward, they see three key growth triggers for Reliance Industries in the near term
-Scale-up of the new energy business
-Tariff hikes for Jio, which directly flow into the bottom line
-Potential IPO/listing for Jio
However, the listing plans for Jio have now been pushed beyond 2025. Nomura believes, “the new energy business could be the next growth driver for RIL, with the company targeting world-leading scale in integrated solar solutions and ESS battery manufacturing and implementation.”
They added that, “captive consumption of green energy produced may result in 25% energy cost reduction for Reliance Group in the future.” Reliance Industries is also targeting to rope in partners who can contribute to financing and offtake, according to management
Nuvama on Reliance Industries: New energy to be largest multidecadal growth driver
Nuvama Institutional Equities maintained its Buy rating on Reliance Industries, with a target price of Rs 1,767.
Reliance Industries’ NE (new energy) ecosystem is set to ramp up in 4–6 quarters, which will be the largest multidecadal growth driver. “We expect a fully integrated 10GW polysilicon-to-module facility by end-FY26, which may add 6% to consolidated PAT. The NE platform is to be self-funded in a few years,” said Nuvama.
Reliance Industries is developing next-generation tech across the chain, such as perovskite (with more than 30% efficiency). Also, the Petchem expansion is on track for FY27, a 50% rise in US ethane imports to lift margins.
Oil-to-chemicals/gas accounted for 60% of attributable net profit. The EBITDA for O2C grew 11% YoY. However, it dropped 4% QoQ on favourable fuel margins and PP/PVC deltas, partly offset by lower volumes due to shutdown and a fall in polyester chain margins.
Jefferies on Reliance Industries: Refinery shutdown impacted O2C business
Jefferies, an international brokerage, retained its Buy rating on Reliance Industries, with a target price of Rs 1,726. The consolidated EBITDA came in at 3%, which was below the estimate of Jefferies. Also, the EBITDA of O2C grew 5% YoY and Retail by 4%. The company’s core retail grew 8% YoY as electronics slowed on early monsoon & space addition lagged. However, Subscriber growth, broadband push, and margin lift drove Jio’s gains. According to Jefferies, the O2C business is impacted by the refinery shutdown.
Motilal Oswal on Reliance Industries: Jio to remain biggest growth driver
The brokerage house reiterated its ‘Buy’ call, with a slight increase in target price to Rs 1,700, earlier Rs 1,685. According to the domestic broker, Reliance Industries showed weak performance in the Retail and O2C business. The company’s EBITDA reduced by 1-2% for FY26-27 and net profit by 4% due to broad-based cuts. Motilal Oswal expects Reliance Jio to remain the biggest growth driver with 19% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28. All in all, the Q1 FY26 was soft, but the brokerage remains positive on growth across segments.