By VK Sharma
The Nifty is likely to witness some consolidation in the coming days as traders continue taking some money off the table. The benchmark shed 73 points, or 0.28%, for the week to close at 25,722 — marking its first weekly loss after a string of four back-to-back weekly gains.
The Nifty had rallied 1,517 points from the low of 24,587 seen on September 30 to 26,104 registered on October 23. It now stands 382 points below its recent swing high. The candle formed for the week ended October 24 had a body of just 29 points, resembling a Doji — though not a perfect one. The appearance of a Doji indicates indecision and a possible trend reversal from the prevailing trend before its formation. By closing in the red last week, the Nifty has signalled that it may move lower for some comfort.
However, the index remains above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently placed at 25,590, which serves as the first support level for the benchmark. Considering the Nifty’s upswing of 1,517 points since September 30, Fibonacci retracement levels can be viewed as potential supports. A 38.2% retracement of these gains suggests support at 25,524, while a 50% retracement points to support at 25,245. These levels have been indicated in the adjoining chart.
Apart from that, attention should be given to the trendlines drawn earlier. The trendline number 74 in the adjoining chart was plotted by connecting the all-time high of 26,277 seen in September 2024 and the level of 25,669 recorded in June 2025. This trendline, which had earlier acted as resistance till October 16, will now serve as support. Support on this trendline is seen around 25,400.
The first close above this trendline on the daily charts was on October 16. On the weekly charts, it was breached on October 17, and on the monthly charts, on October 31.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve last Wednesday slashed interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% but was hesitant to guide for the December meeting. The Fed Chair said that the central bank was “navigating in the fog.”
Jerome Powell was speaking the truth. With the US now into its 34th day of government shutdown, all policymakers are groping in the dark. On Wednesday, the shutdown will enter its 36th day — the longest in US history, surpassing Trump’s own 35-day record seen in 2018–19. The biggest risk is that if it drags on, crucial data could be lost, as the October data was not collected.
Markets, however, have a knack for overcoming uncertainties. Expect the markets to consolidate in the coming days before moving higher.
(The writer is a technical analyst & former head of clients’ group, HDFC Securities)