The precious metal space, especially Gold, had a dream run in 2025, and the party is likely to continue in 2026. Deutsche Bank in its recent Commodities Precious Special report has turned decisively bullish on precious metals, raising its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 an ounce. Silver is expected to average $55.1 in 2026, a jump that Deutsche Bank links to the tightest post-ETF net balance in its dataset. Additionally, platinum is projected at $1,735, supported by a double-digit supply deficit.
According to Deutsche Bank, this broad upswing is emerging due to investment-led demand running ahead of the supply response. Gold’s 2025 trading range is already the largest since 1980, and the bank notes the metal is “breaking historical norms” as traditional relationships with rates, the dollar and risk assets prove less reliable than before.
Deutsche Bank on Gold: Forecast raised as investment demand tightens supply
Deutsche Bank attributes the bulk of its upgraded gold call to aggressive official-sector accumulation, with central-bank demand expected to rise to 1,053 tonnes in 2026 from an estimated 853 tonnes in 2025. The bank argues that this concentration of buying is structurally important because official institutions absorb metal without reacting to price, effectively tightening the available pool for other buyers.
Meanwhile, ETFs have swung back into accumulation after four years of redemptions. Deutsche Bank expects ETF demand to rise meaningfully in 2026 as investors respond to macro uncertainty, geopolitical risks and persistent concerns about long-term inflation. Once ETFs return to the buy side, their influence tends to accelerate price moves, and the bank’s model showed this.
On the supply side, the response has been weak. Recycled supply remains well below earlier peaks, and mine output has been constrained by operational issues at major sites and years of conservative capital spending. Gold lease rates have firmed, pointing to reduced short-term availability. Because of this mix of stronger investment demand and slow supply growth the bank expects prices to remain elevated through 2026.
China’s central bank leads the official buying cycle
A large part of the official-sector demand is concentrated in China, which has expanded its gold reserves month after month, sometimes even through periods of intense volatility. Deutsche Bank notes that the People’s Bank of China is now the anchor buyer in the current cycle, and its behaviour is shaping the broader market.
The report links China’s steady accumulation to a wider reassessment of reserve composition after the freeze on Russia’s foreign assets. Emerging-market central banks have become more cautious about concentrated dollar exposure, and gold has benefited directly from this shift. The bank argues that China’s sustained buying has also encouraged other reserve managers to diversify, creating a feedback loop that keeps official demand elevated.
This matters because China’s purchases reduce the amount of metal available for recycling or for price-sensitive jewellery demand, reinforcing the investment-led trend underpinning Deutsche Bank’s bullish stance.
Deutsche Bank on Silver: Forecast at $55.1 as inventories thin
Deutsche Bank expects silver to average $55.1 in 2026, supported by what it calls the tightest net balance relative to supply in its dataset. Inventories in identifiable exchange warehouses have been falling steadily, and ETF holdings are expected to increase after years of subdued activity.
Industrial consumption particularly in solar, EVs and electronics continues to rise, while mine production has not kept pace. Silver lease rates have climbed to their highest levels since at least 2002, signalling short-term scarcity and pushing borrowing costs higher for industrial users.
The bank notes that silver tends to outperform gold in tight markets because of its smaller size and higher sensitivity to ETFs. This pattern could repeat in 2026 if investment flows strengthen.
Deutsche Bank on Platinum: Structural deficit keeps 2026 forecast at $1,735
Platinum enters 2026 with a persistent structural deficit, and Deutsche Bank expects the market to remain undersupplied by around 13% of total supply. This deficit underpins the $1,735 price projection. Mine production, particularly from South Africa, remains vulnerable to operational interruptions, and Russia’s output shows limited flexibility.
Demand from the automotive sector has held up, and the bank notes an additional factor: China’s VAT reform, which removed exemptions on platinum bars in late 2025. This shift is expected to move more trading into formal channels and potentially increase bar-and-coin demand outside China.
Lease rates for platinum are now at their highest since 2002, reinforcing the tightness in physical availability, the bank notes.
Deutsche Bank on jewellery pledging – India concerns
Jewellery fabrication demand is expected to fall from 1,587 tonnes in 2025 to 1,500 tonnes in 2026, marking another year of pressure on a traditionally stable segment. Deutsche Bank points to India as a key contributor to this shift.
High prices, tighter household budgets and easier access to gold-loan products have pushed more families to pledge jewellery instead of selling it. This trend keeps metal locked out of the recycling loop, reducing the supply that would normally come back into the market during periods of elevated prices. Because jewellery demand is a flexible segment, any weakening here amplifies the influence of central banks and ETFs on global pricing, as per Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank list risks that could weigh on the forecast
Deutsche Bank mentioned several risks. The most significant is a slowdown in official demand. If central-bank buying reverts to the 2011–2021 average, gold could average $3,850 in 2026 instead of $4,450, and the 2027 forecast would drop to $4,200 from the bank’s $5,150 projection, it added.
A sharp equity-market correction could also hurt gold, given periods of positive correlation with risk assets. Any meaningful progress in Russia–Ukraine negotiations could weaken the geopolitical bid temporarily. The bank also notes that large real-price increases in gold have historically been followed by corrections, citing 1981 and 2013.