As Dhanteras approaches, gold buyers are reflecting on a prosperous year, with those who purchased the yellow metal on last year’s Dhanteras, November 10, 2023, enjoying returns of around 30%.
Despite this substantial rise, experts predict further upside potential, with gold prices expected to reach Rs 87,000 per 10 grams by next Dhanteras, reflecting an additional gain of 10-11% from current levels.
So far in 2024, gold has surged by 24%, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at a solid 15%. Silver, often gold’s bullish companion, has performed even more impressively, delivering returns of 35% over the same period.
Historical Price Trends: Recent Years in Review
Gold prices have seen varied performances over recent years. In 2021, prices dipped by 6.73%, only to recover in 2022 with a gain of 6.37%.
The most notable appreciation was seen in 2020, when gold prices surged by 33.15%, marking the highest annual gain in the last seven years.
Dhanteras and Diwali: Gold demand surges
This Dhanteras, celebrated on Tuesday, is seeing significant demand despite record-high gold prices. Currently, domestic prices hover around Rs 80,000 per 10 grams, having remained near this mark for the past week.
Since last year’s Diwali on November 10, gold prices have jumped from Rs 60,750 to approximately Rs 78,700 per 10 grams, marking a 30% increase, based on data from the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
Market sentiment: Rs 80,000 level in sight
With Dhanteras and Diwali around the corner, demand for gold remains robust, as buyers expect prices to test and potentially exceed the Rs 80,000 per 10 grams psychological level.
Diwali, set for October 31 this year, is likely to further drive purchases, adding to the festive season’s high demand despite elevated price levels.
Analysts outlook on gold for Samvat 2081
Commenting on the gold outlook for near term Anshul Jain, Head Research Analyst at Lakshmishree investment and securities said that This Diwali, gold has emerged from a significant “cup and handle” breakout at Rs 76,000, setting its sights on an ambitious target of Rs 86,000. This classic pattern suggests bullish momentum, and the supporting factors appear strong. Global demand for safe-haven assets is rising, with mounting fears in international markets reflected in the robust breakout volumes seen recently.
Jain also added Gold’s allure as a secure investment is only growing, especially with geopolitical tensions simmering in the Middle East, pushing investors to safeguard their portfolios with precious metals. Low volumes during the buildup phase of the breakout further underline that this upward trajectory is likely driven by genuine interest rather than speculation.