The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that southern India will experience a prolonged spell of widespread rainfall over the coming days. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are likely to see isolated very heavy to extremely heavy showers. This activity is being driven by a well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea and nearby Lakshadweep, which is expected to strengthen into a depression within the next 24 hours.
According to the IMD’s latest update, light to moderate rain with thunderstorms and lightning will continue in many parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and Rayalaseema until October 21. By midweek, this is expected to spread to Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka. The weather department has also issued warnings of strong surface winds of 30-40 kmph, particularly over south interior Karnataka on October 24 and 25.
Flood and landslide warnings
The IMD’s Flash Flood Guidance system has identified a low to moderate risk of flash floods in several districts of Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu due to continuous rain and saturated soils.
-Kerala: Ernakulam, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Palakkad, Thrissur, Wayanad, Kasaragod, Idukki
–Karnataka: Dakshina Kannada, Udupi, Uttara Kannada, Shivamogga, Chikmagalur
–Tamil Nadu: Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Erode, Tiruppur, Dindigul
Authorities have also warned of surface water runoff, swollen rivers, urban waterlogging and the risk of landslides or mudslides in hilly areas.
Southern India braces for heavy rain
The IMD’s extended forecast points to an active monsoon transition phase over the southern peninsula. A combination of weather systems and sea-surface circulations is fueling persistent rainfall. Kerala and Mahe may see very heavy rain on October 20 and again from October 23–25. Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema are expected to experience intense showers between October 22 and 25.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Lakshadweep may also face multiple rounds of heavy rainfall throughout the week. The IMD has cautioned that continuous rain could trigger localised flooding, river overflows and landslides, particularly in areas with steep terrain and waterlogged soil.
While southern India faces heavy rains, north and central India have largely remained dry with clear skies. Minimum temperatures in some parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh were about 5°C above normal, while Barmer in Rajasthan recorded the country’s highest maximum temperature at 37.5°C.