Hours before campaigning ends for the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections where Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party is seeking a rare third term in power, the Phalodi Satta Bazar — infamous for getting its predictions from rains to polls right — has one forecast that could damage BJP in more ways than one.

Most pollsters so far have given the BJP a clear edge ahead of the Opposition INDIA bloc, it is PM Modi’s pitch for ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ for the NDA that appears to be defining the election campaign so far. Key to realising this ambitious target is states and seats where the BJP has performed poorly in the past two elections. Equally crucial for the BJP is to maintain its dominance in states where it made a clean sweep.

The Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Uttarakhand are where the BJP draws a majority of its support from. This support base covers 218 seats — the BJP alone holds 170 of them — and is seen as the defining factor of the overwhelming majority for the ruling dispensation.

Phalodi Satta Bazar Prediction: Will BJP Sweep Heartland?

As per the predictions of this Satta Bazar, the BJP may fail to make a clean sweep on the 25 seats in Rajasthan. The market’s projections over the past few days show the saffron party winning 20-23 seats in the state, a loss of 2-5 seats from its tally in 2014 and 2019. The Congress, on othe other hand, could manage to open its account in the state after 10 years, with projections suggesting the possibility of the party winning 2-5 seats.

In Madhya Pradesh, with 29 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs, the BJP is likely to follow a similar trajectory as Rajasthan. As per the Phalodi Satta Bazar, the BJP is projected to win 24-25 seats in the state, down from its clean sweep in the last two elections. The Congress, on the other hand, is predicted to win 2 seats while Others may bag another 2.

Uttar Pradesh, the state with the largest number of Lok Sabha seats, could deliver 68-70 seats for the BJP, up from 62 seats it won in the 2019 elections. The Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, may win 10-12 seats while Others may bag the rest. In the 2019 elections, BSP emerged victorious in 10 seats, SP in 5, Apna Dal (Sonelal) in 2, and the Congress in 1 seat. As per the predictions of the Satta Bazar, the BJP is unlikely to repeat its 2019 performance, contrary to its claims of winning all 80 seats riding on the Ram Mandir wave. Among seats that appear tough for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh are Azamgarh, Ghosi, Ghazipur, Etawah, Mainpuri and Jaunpur.

Satta Bazar prediction 2024: How many seats will BJP, Congress win?

The latest poll predictions at the buzzing Phalodi Satta Bazar in Rajasthan has some news to worry for the BJP. While bookies here are betting on the BJP’s return to power, their forecast may cast a shadow on the party’s tall claims of securing its biggest-ever win.

The Satta Bazar’s latest projections show the Congress crossing the 100-mark after failing to cross the 50-seat mark in the previous two elections. Riding on its popularity in southern states and the gains it appears set to make in heartland states of MP and Rajasthan, the Congress may register its best performance since 2014. If the party manages to cross the 100-mark on its own, it will gain the status of the Leader of Opposition for the first time in 15 years. The BJP, on the other hand, may finish at around 330 seats, the predictions suggest with the NDA settling at 350-370 seats.

(DISCLAIMER: Gambling is illegal unless permitted by state-specific laws. Readers are advised to stay away from it. The purpose of this news item is only to present the prevailing trends in the betting market. Financial Express Online does not support or endorse Satta Bazar predictions.)