With the last phase of the Lok Sabha elections set to be held open, all eyes are on exit polls that will be broadcast across different news channels tomorrow, from 6 30 pm onwards. Exit polls are only allowed following the conclusion of voting. Polling tomorrow begins at 7 AM and ends at 6 PM.
It is interesting to note what different psychologists predict for this election. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, political analysts Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishor have offered contrasting perspectives on the potential electoral outcomes.
Former psephologist Yogendra Yadav, in his recent analysis, posited challenges for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in securing a decisive victory. He projected that the BJP alone may not exceed 260 seats, emphasizing the improbability of reaching the 300-seat mark. Yadav even suggested potential outcomes where the BJP could fall below 275 or even 250 seats, dismissing the party’s claim of winning over 400 seats as unrealistic.
Yadav’s forecast, shared via a YouTube video, indicates that the BJP could secure between 240 and 260 seats, with NDA allies likely to garner 35 to 45 seats. This would tally the NDA’s seat count between 275 and 305, sufficient for forming a government but notably short of the BJP’s target.
Yadav also anticipated a resurgence for the Congress party, estimating its seat count to range between 85 and 100, along with projected gains for the INDIA bloc, the Congress-led alliance, which could secure between 120 and 135 seats. Collectively, this would present a formidable challenge to the BJP with an opposition alliance ranging between 205 and 235 seats.
Yogendra Yadav’s Prediction:
BJP: 240-260
NDA: 35-45
INC: 85-100
INDIA: 120-135
What Prashant Kishor predicts?
Political strategist Prashant Kishor offered a more optimistic outlook for the incumbent BJP government. Kishor suggested that the BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, faces neither significant dissatisfaction nor a strong demand for an alternative. He indicated the likelihood of the Modi-led BJP securing another victory, potentially matching or surpassing its 2019 seat tally of 303.
“I think the Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better,” Kishor remarked during an interview with NDTV.
Kishor, speaking to India Today TV, said that it was impossible for the BJP to get 370 seats on its own and that the party will get somewhere around 300 seats.
“From the day PM Modi claimed that the BJP would secure 370 seats and the NDA would surpass the 400 mark, I said this was not possible. This is all sloganeering to boost workers’ morale. It is impossible for the BJP to get 370 seats, but it is also certain that the party will not fall below the 270 mark. I believe the BJP will manage to secure the same number of seats as it did in the previous Lok Sabha elections, which is 303 seats, or perhaps a little more,” Kishor said.