Does the Kamal Nath government face a BJP threat? After days of drama which spilled over from Bengaluru to Mumbai and New Delhi, the HD Kumaraswamy-led Congress-JDS government finally collapsed on Tuesday evening. The 14-month-old coalition government lost the trust motion in the state Assembly 99-105, paving way for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to form the government once again in the southern state. While the Bharatiya Janata Party has maintained that it had no role to play in the fallout, there is little doubt in the minds of anyone who understands politics that the rebel MLAs had the support and protection of the saffron party. And if there’s anyone who needs to be worried, it is the Congress.
The signs are ominous. With the ‘Operation Lotus’ finally succeeding in Karnataka, the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to set sight on Madhya Pradesh and even Rajasthan, the two states where the Congress only has a wafer thin majority. In the election results declared in December last year, the Congress managed to displace the BJP in three states of the Hindi heartland. While the victory margin in Chhattisgarh was comprehensive, the case is starkly different in MP and Rajasthan.
Also Read: Congress is dying because of its own sins: Shivraj Singh Chouhan
Madhya Pradesh
In Madhya Pradesh, the Kamal Nath government hangs on the support of two Bahujan Samaj Party MLAs, one Samajwadi Party MLA and three independent legislators. The Congress had won 114 seats, two less than the magic mark, in the Assembly elections held in December last year. The BJP could manage 109 in the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly, drawing the curtains on the 15-year term of CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
The failure of the Congress to translate its state wins to Lok Sabha election victories is what set the ball rolling in the case of Karnataka. And if it is any indication, a similar sentiment has crept into the political landscape in Madhya Pradesh. Political pundits believe that the BJP leadership is likely to shift its focus on the central Indian state after snatching back its southern stronghold Karnataka from the Congress.
And if former Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s statement is anything to go by, the BJP seems to be waiting for the right opportunity to strike. Chouhan underlined that though his party won’t try to topple the Kamal Nath government, the internal conflict within the Congress will cause the damage.
Also Read: Rahul Gandhi is like captain who jumps out when ship is sinking, says BJP leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan
“We’ll not cause the fall of government here (Madhya Pradesh). Congress leaders themselves have been responsible for fall of their governments. There is an internal conflict in Congress, and support of BSP-SP, if something happens to that then we can’t do anything,” Chouhan had told news agency ANI after the Kumarawamy government fell.
Moreover, for Kamal Nath, keeping BSP, SP MLAs alligned with the Congress is not the only task. He also faces the challenge of keeping his own flock together i.e MLAs and workers who are loyal to Jyotiraditya Scindia, who enjoys a clout over a section in Congress’ MP unit. The friction between Nath and Digvijaya Singh was also well established when the CM sent the Congress veteran to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Bhopal, a seat which the party hasn’t won for over three decades now. Internal feuds have traditionally hampered the party’s prospects over the past decade and this could have a similar impact going forward as well.
Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, the Congress has 100 members in the 200-seat state Assembly. The BJP had won 73 seats in the December, 2018 Assembly elections. Much like Madhya Pradesh, the Congress faces a daunting task of safeguarding its government in Rajasthan where the rivalry between CM Ashok Gehlot and his deputy Sachin Pilot is an open secret. The Congress leadership’s decision to ignoring him for the CM post has apparently not gone down too well with Sachin Pilot, who was credited for resurrecting the party in the state after the humiliating loss in the 2013 Assembly elections.
The party failed to win a single seat out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The blame for the poor show was pinned on Ashok Gehlot, who state leaders said concentrated largely on Jodhpur seat from where his son Vaibhav contested but lost.
Keeping the challenges at the state level apart, the Congress is yet to find a suitable replacement of Rahul Gandhi who resigned from the party president post on May 25, a couple of days after Lok Sabha election results were announced. With uncertainty and confusion writ large over party leadership, leaders like Kamal Nath, Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot are apparently left with no option but to decide for themselves.