Bihar exit poll result: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set for a strong victory in the Bihar Assembly elections, according to an exit poll by the People’s Pulse Research Organisation. 

The survey suggests that Nitish Kumar’s NDA is likely to win between 133 and 159 seats, while Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan may secure 75 to 101 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is expected to get 0 to 5 seats and other parties could win between 2 and 8 seats.

Even though People’s Pulse predicts a strong victory for the NDA in Bihar, it suggests that Tejashwi Yadav has a higher chance of becoming Chief Minister, with a 32% probability. In comparison, Nitish Kumar’s chances of returning as Chief Minister stand at 30%.

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As per the poll, the NDA is expected to get about 46.2 per cent of the total votes, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan may secure around 37.9 per cent – a difference of nearly 8.3 per cent. Jan Suraj Party is predicted to get about 9.7 per cent of the votes, with smaller parties sharing the remaining 6.2 per cent.

NDA set to cross majority mark

Even with a margin of error of three per cent, the results indicate a clear lead for the NDA, which could win between 133 and 159 of the 243 seats, crossing the majority mark of 122. Within the alliance, the BJP may win 63 to 70 seats, JD(U) could get 55 to 62, and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) might secure 12 to 17. Smaller allies like Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) are expected to get 2 to 5 and 1 to 4 seats, respectively.

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The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, appears to be struggling. The RJD may still be the largest opposition party with 62 to 69 seats, while the Congress might get only 9 to 18, and CPI(ML) around 4 to 9. Jan Suraj, despite gaining votes, is unlikely to win more than 5 seats, and other smaller parties like AIMIM, CPI(M), VIP, and CPI may end up with very few or no seats at all.

Vote share breakdown reveals tight contest

In terms of vote share, RJD leads with 23.3 per cent, followed by BJP with 21.4 per cent, JD(U) with 17.6 per cent, Congress with 8.7 per cent, and LJP with 5 per cent. The remaining 7.2 per cent votes go to other smaller parties.