The Bay of Bengal appears poised to face another impending storm shortly, subsequent to the cyclonic storm Midhili that impacted several northeastern states. Current meteorological conditions indicate the likelihood of another cyclonic storm occurring in the Bay of Bengal basin. This would mark the fourth storm this year and is anticipated to make landfall in India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, as per reports from Skymetweather.
Typically, cyclones form between April and December. Nevertheless, a spike in cyclonic conditions usually occurs in May before a peak after the monsoon season in November. These particular months are notorious for fostering hazardous weather conditions conducive to cyclone genesis.
Usually, around four storms emerge annually in the Indian Seas. However, warmer sea surface temperatures can result in more than four storms in a given year. The forthcoming storm is set to be the sixth of the year in the Indian waters and the fourth in the Bay of Bengal. Numerical models suggest the possibility of more storms due to unfavorable weather conditions.
The origins of the upcoming tropical storm can be traced back to the Gulf of Thailand. Meteorological conditions over the Gulf of Thailand and the neighboring Malay Peninsula in the lower levels are creating potential cyclonic circulation, as reported by Skymetweather.
Not all weather disturbances necessarily evolve into cyclonic pressure; some may dissipate. However, the geographical, climatological, and environmental conditions currently support further intensification. There are suspicions that the equatorial disturbance may enter the Andaman Sea around or after November 25.
Historically, weather systems originating from the Gulf of Thailand and the Malay Peninsula have been observed to undertake extended journeys across the sea. Consequently, these equatorial disturbances might gain strength and potentially make landfall along the coastlines of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
As a result, Odisha, West Bengal, and Bangladesh are at risk of facing hazardous weather conditions following a cyclone strike. Within the next 48 hours, it will become clearer whether the storm will dissipate or make landfall in the region. If this fourth cyclonic storm of the year in the Bay of Bengal does strike, it is anticipated to be named ‘Michaung,’ pronounced as ‘Migjaum,’ as suggested by Myanmar.