OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged on Sunday after avoiding discussions of the multiple political crises affecting the producer group’s members, from the Middle East as well as Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
Sunday’s meeting of eight members of OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, came after oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025 — their steepest yearly drop since 2020 — amid growing oversupply concerns.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE flared last month over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government. The crisis triggered the biggest split in decades between the former close allies.
And on Saturday, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the country until a transition to a new administration becomes possible, without saying how this would be achieved.
Driven by political uncertainty
“Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official. “And OPEC+ is clearly prioritising stability over action.”
The eight OPEC+ members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand, to regain market share.
The eight members agreed in November to pause output hikes for January, February and March due to relatively low demand in the northern hemisphere winter. Sunday’s brief online meeting affirmed that policy and did not discuss Venezuela, one OPEC+ delegate said.
The eight countries will next meet on February 1, OPEC+ said.
Numerous crisis
OPEC has in the past managed to overcome many internal rifts, such as over the Iran–Iraq War, by prioritising market management over political disputes. Yet the group is facing other crises, with Russian oil exports falling due to U.S. sanctions over its war in Ukraine, and Iran facing protests and U.S. threats of intervention.
Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, bigger even than those of OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia, but its oil production has plummeted due to years of mismanagement and sanctions. Analysts said it is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years, even if U.S. oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that Trump promised.