The long-delayed jobs report for September, originally due for release on October 3, will be released today. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the September nonfarm payrolls data on Thursday, November 20, at 8:30 a.m. ET. It will be the first BLS jobs data since the August report, released on September 5.
To some extent, the September nonfarm payrolls data may indicate the direction of the US Fed monetary policy in the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
US Fed FOMC Rate Cut
The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal Fed members are split on whether to cut rates to boost the economy and job market, or keep them higher for longer to push inflation down to the Fed’s target of a 2% annual rate.
A worse-than-expected September jobs report could sway some Fed members toward a rate cut, while faster job growth would give ammunition to those arguing for a focus on inflation.
“If we see a super-hot report, it would kill the chances of another Fed cut this year, and probably spark a bout of risk aversion as a result. Given what we heard from the BLS yesterday, this is the last jobs report that we’ll be getting before the December FOMC; hence, while stale, the figures do take on even greater importance,” says Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
Labor Market Outlook
The September numbers are expected to be up from the initially reported 22,000 in August, but still indicative of a soft labor market. According to FactSet, economists are expecting 50,000 jobs to be added in September and that the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.3%. The average in the 12 months through April is 147,000. According to BLS data, employment increases since May have averaged 31,000 each month, or around one-fifth of the average for 2024.
According to Department of Labor data, continuing jobless claims—which are filed by individuals who have been unemployed for at least a week or longer—have been hovering around four-year highs. As of October 18, there were 1.957 million continuing claims, the largest since August, according to the most recent claims data, which was partially completed this week.
Goldman Sachs predicts the creation of 80,000 jobs in September, surpassing consensus expectations, but foresees a decrease of 50,000 jobs in October.
US Economic Data
Meanwhile, the BLS has communicated that it will not publish an October 2025 Employment Situation news release. The survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published along with the November 2025 data in December.
BLS said, Household survey data from the Current Population Survey could not be collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations. The household survey data could not be retroactively collected. The collection period for November 2025 data will be extended for both surveys, and extra processing time will be added.
Also, BLS will not publish a September 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) news release. Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey for September 2025 will be published with the October 2025 data. To date, there is no update on the JOLTS release date by the BLS.