The release of the FOMC meeting minutes today is keenly anticipated by investors, analysts, and economists who are interested to know more about the world’s biggest central bank’s rate-hike trajectory. Global investors, therefore, pay close attention to the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. The FOMC meeting minutes reveal the opinions of Fed members on the terminal rate and the potential Federal Funds Rate trajectory.

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting held on September 19-20 will be released today October 11 at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Interest rates were left unchanged by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at their most recent meeting in September 2023. Earlier, at its meeting in July 2023, the FOMC had increased interest rates to 5.25%–5.50%, the 11th rate hike this cycle to combat excessive inflation.

Consumer spending and a solid labor market are helping to shape the economy, but there is a risk that inflation will rise above present levels. Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged a soft landing as a plausible economic outcome but acknowledges it’s not guaranteed and remains committed to reducing inflation. The ‘higher-for-longer’ scenario for rates is likely to prevail in the US economy. The US consumer price index data for September is due on October 12.

However, Fed officials including Chief Powell had indicated earlier about hiking rates in the future. According to the central bank’s most recent economic forecasts, rates will increase by another quarter-point this year. Federal Reserve officials anticipate a further interest-rate hike before the end of the year, with a median projection of 5.6%, matching June’s projection.

Going forward, there won’t be as many cuts in 2024, according to some market analysts. Officials currently forecast two quarter-point cuts. The Federal Reserve is awaiting more assurance that inflation is sustainably returning to target levels before confirming the completion of its interest rate-raising efforts.

Most Fed officials on the bank’s policy committee continue to see the need for one more quarter-point interest-rate increase at the November or December meetings. The next FOMC meeting takes place on October 31-November 1.

Interestingly, the Federal Reserve announced last week that, ‘in light of the Thanksgiving holiday,’ it would issue the minutes of its forthcoming October 31-November 1 meeting on November 21 on a Tuesday rather than the normal Wednesday. Two days before the Thanksgiving holiday, which is always on the fourth Thursday of November, the Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes will be made public at 2:00 p.m. EST.