According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release schedule, the next set of inflation data will be announced in mid-April. On April 12, 2023, at 8.30 a.m. Eastern Time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue the US CPI data for March.
Market participants, analysts, investors, and traders continuously monitor US CPI data in order to make investment decisions in their portfolios.
Sticky inflation remains a concern to the US Federal Reserve, and softer data may allow the US Fed to stick to a 25bps rate hike on May 2, FOMC meeting.
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After declining for eight consecutive months, the annual inflation rate in the US fell from 6.4% in January to 6% in February 2023, the lowest level since September 2021. From a several-decade high of 9.1%, inflation hovers around 6% but is still much higher than the central bank’s target of 2%. Recent rise in oil prices owing to OPEC+ announcement on April 2 of a surprise cut in crude production, the path ahead for the Fed may not be as smooth as it looks.
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The price index, which includes food and fuel, is expected to rise by 5.1%, the smallest increase in nearly two years. However, it is the core-inflation numbers that play a bigger role in the US Fed’s monetary policy action.
The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy and better reflects the extent of underlying inflation hitting US households, is likely to rise 0.4% in March, according to the BLS data release expected on Wednesday.
If annual US inflation numbers for March also remain stubbornly high, the US Fed will be expected to continue its rate hike spree in the year ahead. With the SVB banking crisis and increased interest rates wreaking havoc on the financial stability of several US regional banks, there is already mounting pressure on the US Fed to go slow.