The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the April US CPI data. The annual inflation rate in the United States fell to 2.3% in April 2025, the lowest since February 2021, down from 2.4% in March and below predictions of 2.4%.

The All items excluding food and energy index increased 2.8%. The energy index fell 3.7%, while the food index gained 2.8%.

In April 2025, the annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States stood at a four-year low of 2.8%, unchanged from March and in line with market expectations.

The all items index rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending March. The April change was the smallest 12-month increase in the all items index since February 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 2.8 percent over the last year.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.1-percent increase in March.

Powell and other economists believe tariffs could be inflationary, and, therefore, the rate cut should be delayed. Trump has repeatedly urged Powell to act, but Powell awaits data. If May inflation declines, pressure on Powell will increase. The next FOMC meeting is on June 17-18.

For the real impact of tariff to be seen, they need to be implemented in totality. The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has been delayed, US-China tariff deals are underway at reduced rates, and negotiations with other countries are ongoing.

Following a stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday, Barclays and Goldman Sachs predicted that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates starting in July. They had earlier forecasted a rate cut for June.

All eyes will now be on US Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, who will be speaking at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C, on May 15.