US CPI Data: Check date and time of release of May inflation numbers

The US inflation report will be one of the most crucial indicators for global investors to watch this week. The US CPI data for last month is particularly interesting for investors because it shows how prices for goods and services responded to the tariff impact in America.

If there’s not much of an impact and inflation trends lower, pressure on Powell will mount to cut rates. However, Powell will be vindicated if inflation spikes or stays sticky on the upper side. Powell and many other economists feel that tariffs could be inflationary, so a rate cut should be delayed.

On June 11, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May US CPI data.

It is expected that the May inflation data will reveal some details regarding the impact of tariffs that may have influenced the prices. The 10% duty on almost all countries is still in place, even though reciprocal duties have been delayed.

US Fed had paused rate cuts since December. While Trump believes that the central bank is already late in cutting rates, Fed chair Powell prefers to play the ‘waiting game’.

Powell has reiterated several times that until the impact of tariffs on prices is seen, there won’t be a rate cut. So, if the May inflation number shows a decline, the pressure on Powell will likely increase to go for the rate cut. The next FOMC meeting is on June 17-18.

Economists and analysts have differing opinions about the tariff’s influence on inflation. Goldman Sachs believes that Trump’s tariffs could reignite inflation to levels not seen since the post-pandemic price rise. Goldman experts forecast that tariffs will raise annual inflation to 3.8% by December, the highest level since 2023.

The implementation of tariffs is taking its own sweet time. After the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, the US-China tariffs have also been paused for a similar period starting May 14. However, the 10% tariffs remain in place.

Walmart’s CEO warned yesterday that tariffs would force it to raise prices this year, even after the recent decrease in duties on China. The retail giant said last quarter that it did not know how much tariffs would affect the core business.

Markets expect CPI inflation data for May to come in higher at 2.5%, from 2.3% last month, as a result of the tariffs. Core inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, is also expected to rise 2.9% over the year, up from 2.8% in April. Also, the PPI data to be released on Thursday is estimated to be higher at 2.6%, up from 2.4% last month.

Till now, inflation surveys indicated a price rise by businesses and a slowdown in hiring, but May data will be crucial for assessing the tariff’s impact on US CPI numbers.

Also important will be the core inflation numbers. The impact of tariffs will be most direct for the ‘core goods’ category, which measures prices for everything besides services, food, and energy. In April, the core goods index rose 0.1%, and the market expects that to go higher in May.

If inflation trends upwards, the markets may soon expect no rate cut in 2025, from the current expectations of at least two rate cuts in 2025. A rebound in CPI inflation could pressure the Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate higher for longer.

US CPI data is important, but still, central bankers use the core measurement in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, not CPI, as their benchmark.

The market is also looking for further clarity on the U.S.-China trade negotiations. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade talks between the US–China were going “really, really well,” suggesting discussions could continue into Wednesday if necessary.