A recent report from the Manhattan Institute, authored by Daniel Di Martino, explains the substantial economic contributions made by skilled immigrants to the United States, particularly focusing on the impact of the H-1B visa program.

According to the study, Indian immigrants, who represent a significant portion of H-1B visa holders, are the most beneficial for the US economy.

The study reveals that each Indian immigrant reduces the national debt by over $1.7 million over a span of 30 years and makes a positive contribution to GDP, outpacing other immigrant groups.

Martino explained, “The average Indian immigrant and his or her descendants will save the federal government $1.7 million over 30 years.”

In comparison, Chinese immigrants, who are also prominent in the H-1B program, reduce the national debt by approximately $800,000 per person, followed by Filipinos, who contribute an average of $600,000.

Other immigrant groups, including Colombians and Venezuelans, also have a net positive effect, lowering the national debt by $500,000 and $400,000, respectively.

However, the study also draws attention to the more costly impact of other immigrant populations. Salvadoran immigrants, for example, add about $50,000 to the national debt per person, while Mexicans, who make up the largest immigrant group in the US, add roughly $10,000 each over 30 years.

Impact of H-1B application fee

One of the most concerning findings in the report is the potential economic damage caused by changes to the H-1B visa program. Under the Trump administration’s stricter immigration policies, including a one-time $100,000 fee for H-1B visas, the study suggests that eliminating the program could significantly harm the economy and increase the national debt.

Without the ability to hire skilled workers from abroad through the H-1B program, US could see its debt rise by as much as $185 billion over 10 years and by $4 trillion over 30 years. Economic output would also shrink by $26 billion in the next decade and $55 billion over 30 years.

The study stated that the impact of ending the H-1B visa program would be profound because the US would lose the taxes paid by these highly skilled workers.

Regardless of low birth rates among immigrant groups, skilled workers from countries like India tend to return to their home countries after their visa term ends, meaning the US population would not significantly change, but the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise sharply.

Over 10 years, the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase by 0.5 percent, and over 30 years, it could rise by nearly 5 percent.

The report also discusses the negative effects of removing per-country limits on employment-based green cards, which would disproportionately benefit Indian immigrants.

Currently, only 7 percent of green cards are allocated to any single country, and Indian immigrants often face decades-long waiting times for permanent residency.

If these caps were lifted, more green cards would go to Indian nationals, but the waiting times for immigrants from other countries would skyrocket.

This policy change could result in a loss of high-skilled immigration and a net increase in national debt by over $1.1 trillion over 30 years.

Additionally, the economy could shrink by 0.7 percent, and the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise by 2.4 percent.