Gold price in India has hit an all-time high and is expected to strengthen after remaining range-bound for several weeks. In the international market, gold is yet to break the record-high price reached in April.
The new triggers for the gold up move are likely to be the US Fed’s rate cut campaign, expected to begin with September’s FOMC meeting. Additionally, the jobs data for July indicates a weakness in the labour market that could subsequently impact consumer demand and economic growth, prompting the US Fed to consider rate cuts.
On Monday, gold in the MCX spot market was at Rs 99,508 per ten grams. On Tuesday, August 5, the IBJA shows the price of 999 gold at Rs 1,00,167.
“Gold hit all-time highs in domestic markets, trading above Rs 101,000 per 10 gm as traders priced in a 94% likelihood of a rate cut next month after weak employment data that sparked worries about the US economy. After rising on a surprising July Nonfarm Payroll data miss and a string of significant lower revisions to May and June’s readings, gold has held onto gains,” says Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head – Research at Augmont.
The other big triggers could be tariff-induced inflation, weakness in the dollar amid the deterioration of the US economy.
“The upward momentum is being driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, expectations of a US Fed rate cut, and a softer dollar index. Domestically, the ongoing festive season and robust wedding demand will further underpin prices. Additionally, elevated inflationary pressures and continued central bank buying are providing a solid floor for bullion,” says Aksha Kamboj, VP, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures.
Citi’s Prediction
Within a few weeks, Citi has reversed its position on gold. In June, Citi predicted gold prices to fall 25%, while today it has revised the price targets upwards.
Citi has increased its forecast trading range for the yellow metal to $3,300 – $3,600 from $3,100 – $3,500 before.
“U.S. growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during 2H’25, which, alongside a weaker dollar, are set to drive gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs,” according to the bank’s analysts.
Citi stated that the lower U.S. labor data in Q2 2025, growing skepticism about the institutional legitimacy of the Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine war all support their higher gold projection.
In June, Citi Research predicted that gold prices had peaked and would decrease in the third quarter of 2025. Citi said at the time that most likely gold prices would consolidate around $3,100 to $3,500 per troy ounce in 3Q, before falling further through the rest of the year and into 2026.
Citi now predicts gold prices to rise from the current levels. Fidelity and Goldman also stay bullish on the gold prices.
Gold Prices
Gold price in international markets trades at $3,377, barely 1% up in the last one month, but over the last 12 months, gold has gained 41%.
Gold price today in India is Rs 1,00,870 per ten gram of 24 carat. Since April, the gold price in India has been in a consolidation phase. “While short-term corrections may occur due to profit booking or shifts in macroeconomic indicators, the broader outlook for gold remains firmly bullish. Investors would be prudent to adopt a staggered accumulation strategy, using any significant price dips as an opportunity to strengthen holdings for portfolio diversification and long-term wealth preservation,” adds Kamboj.
Trump’s tariffs, potentially disrupting global trade and causing conflicts, are likely to be the primary factor supporting gold prices. The US dollar index’s movement may indicate deteriorating economic conditions, prompting investors to monitor the US dollar for gold price direction in the coming months.