The Director of Market Research of a US company “simplifying and empowering the immigration process for individuals, families, and professionals” imparted some quality reminders about the H-1B visa lottery program on social media this week. Looking back at major announcements having rolled out recently, he shared “If you’re an immigration practitioner, keep a close eye on a shakeup of the H-1B program in coming months.”
Finn Reynolds of New York-based Lawfully, the company behind the mobile app immigration tracker, took to his LinkedIn profile to share the sound advice four days ago. Quoting US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow’s comments about a “coming shift to the H-1B program,” the company’s Head of Market Research shared a detailed break-down of the current fragile immigration and visa-focussed landscape in the US.
His LinkedIn reminder comes at a time the MAGA base is already embroiled in furious debates over the nonimmigrant occupation classification. Just weeks ago, reports hinting at the Trump administration’s plans to publish a proposed rule to shut down or revamp the annual H-1B visa lottery sent shockwaves through the international community looking to legally find their way into America with the support of an employment visa.
Avid Trump supporter and US Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene was one such MAGA member who didn’t sugarcoat her vicious statement against Indians, as she wrote on X, “End Indian H-1B visas replacing American jobs instead.”
H-1B visa program updates to keep an eye on
Trump-appointed Joseph Edlow, who was confirmed as the USCIS director on July 15, 2025, came out for an interview with Fox News merely weeks after taking on his new role. “I think H-1B is an important program, but we should make sure…that we know that the people that are being brought over at certain levels…are commensurate with what those levels should be,” he said during the interaction. “So if they are really high skilled, they should be at the higher wage level.”
Edlow further remarked that the agency would be mapping out various ways to address the issue at hand “through integrity measures and a rule” the USCIS would be “hopefully promulgating later on.”
What could the USCIS director be signalling to?
Just recently, the Department of Homeland Security and USCIS submitted a proposal for the rule “Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking to File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions.” A similar rule was issued at the very end of the first Trump administration until the Biden government withdrew it.
As also foregrounded by NAFSA: Association of International Educators, the previously rebuffed rule would have significantly altered how the top US immigration agency handled the H-1B cap-subject registration requirement “by generally first selecting registrations based on the highest Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) prevailing wage level that the proffered wage equals or exceeds for the relevant Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code and area(s) of intended employment.” As a result, the current random selection protocol would be thrown out the window, with the new changes giving preference to higher wage earners.
The wage-based allocation process, as detailed in the 2021 proposal, stated, “Prioritising wage levels in the registration selection process incentivizes employers to offer higher wages, or to petition for positions requiring higher skills and higher-skilled aliens that are commensurate with higher wage levels, to increase the likelihood of selection for an eventual petition.”
However, it currently remains unclear how different (other than the formal titles) and/or identical the final rule under the second Trump administration will be as opposed to the one published in January 2021, which was titled “Modification of Registration Requirement for Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions.”
New USCIS Director may clean house with new ‘anti-immigration’ agenda
Lawfully’s Finn Reynolds also suggested that Edlow could be hinting at other plans the Trump administration may propose in relation to the H-1B program. He then alluded to an analysis of the Project 2025’s immigration provisions published by the American think tank Niskanen Center’s Cecilia Esterline, a senior immigration policy analyst. Edlow (who said in his opening statement before the Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation that the USCIS “must be an immigration enforcement agency”) was a contributor to the ring-wing wish list, Project 2025.
Digging into Esterline’s analysis, Reynolds wrote, “She noted that Project 2025 instructed the Department of Labor to eliminate the two lowest prevailing wage levels. Were this change enacted, only H-1B employees earning a Level 3 or 4 prevailing wage would be eligible for the visa.”
Here Level 1 and Level 2 employees are the ones with the minimum required salaries, and so, international students starting their career are generally paid at these levels. Meanwhile, higher salaries typically go to more senior workers, with Level 3 deemed experienced and Level 4 fully competent, according to the labour condition application.
Joseph Edlow’s Trump-favoured perspective on the immigration scene has also led him to believe that the test undertaken by applicants to become a US citizen is “not very difficult.” He told the New York Times, ” It’s very easy to kind of memorise the answers. I don’t think we’re really complying with the spirit of the law.”
Recent interview changes usher trouble
As per a recent development, interview waivers, aka the “dropbox” program, will be scrapped for most visa types, including H-1B renewals starting September 2, 2025. As a result, everyone, including children under 14 and elderly individuals over 79 who were excused due to their age, will now be required to be present in person for interviews. Consequently, the growing focus on in-person interviews will lead to a demand for interview appointments and schedules at US consulates, further pushing back travel schedules and causing longer wait time.
This would essentially hit the foreign community like a wrecking ball, especially since a National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) analysis indicated that over 70% of the full-time graduate students in electrical engineering and computers and information sciences at US colleges are international. On top of that, among doctorate holders in the country partaking in research and development, 83% in computer and information sciences and 80% in electrical and computer engineering are foreign nationals as well.