The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the US CPI data for September amidst the government lockdown. The September 2025 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
According to FactSet, the US CPI data for September is expected to show a rise in inflation. “The median estimate, year-over-year, for the consumer price index (CPI) for September 2025 is 3.1%. If 3.1% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the highest number since May 2024 (3.3%). It will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 2.7%.”
The US CPI data for September was scheduled to be published on October 15, but it will now be released today. Despite the government shutdown, the US Department of Labor (DOL) had indicated that it would recall some employees to provide the US CPI inflation figures.
The BLS collects CPI prices throughout the reference month, ensuring that data gathering for the September report is completed before the government shutdown started on October 1.
The study takes eight to ten working days to complete, with dozens of economists and IT specialists participating in its creation and distribution.
The lack of labour market data is also posing concerns. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently stated that it will be “a lot of help” to have the CPI report for the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. However, his concern was the labor market data, as the BLS had yet to release the September employment data, which was scheduled for release on October 3.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where the Fed chief is expected to announce a rate cut of 25bps. The CME FedWatch Tool shows high odds for a 50-bps rate drop overall this year. If the headline CPI inflation rate is 3.1% or more, the FOMC may decide to keep rates the same.
The Fed’s decision to cut rates next week is unlikely to be derailed by the September CPI data, but it may influence the rate of future decreases.
As of right now, markets are giving another cut in December, with a probability of over 90%. FOMC’s meeting in December is on the 9th and 10th, which is associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.