Today, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the world’s richest central bank. Powell will be speaking on Friday at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia.
Global investors, analysts and market participants would be looking for cues from Powell on several recent developments. Powell’s commentary might provide important insights on a variety of topics, including tariffs, jobs, rate direction, and the economy.
On March 18-19 FOMC meeting, the Fed released the summary of economic projections along with the dot plot showing two rate cuts in 2025. Now, after Trump’s severe tariff announcements, the probability of a US recession has gone up. Powell may have to resort to more or larger rate cuts to manage an economy already dealing with higher interest rates.
Trump was always in favour of lower rates and has now put Powell in a spot. Cutting rates soon and aggressively may trigger inflation again, while a delay could hurt the US economy. The next set of US CPI data for March arrives April 10, 2025. If inflation shows stickiness or a spike, it will make Powell’s task that much more difficult.
Powell’s talk on April 4 at 11:25 a.m. on Economic Outlook at the SABEW Annual Conference, therefore, becomes an important event to watch.
Also, today at 12:00 p.m., Governor Michael S. Barr will be delivering his speech on Artificial Intelligence and Banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco State University, and University of California Santa Cruz 2025 Fintech Conference, San Francisco, California.
Powell had earlier said that inflation from tariffs would be transitory. Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented from April 5 and reciprocal tariffs from April 9. The impact will be felt later as consumers, corporations, and governments respond.