Reliance Jio is expected to post 2.5%–3.4% QoQ (quarter-on-quarter) revenue growth for the June quarter (Q1FY26), driven by robust subscriber additions and a steady improvement in average revenue per user (ARPU), analysts said.
Revenue for Jio Platforms is projected to grow sequentially to around Rs 31, 000–31, 200 crore. This growth will be driven by an estimated 7–7.2 million net additions during the quarter, of which 2–2.5 million are expected to be mobile subscribers, according to Axis Capital and JM Financial.
Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) for Jio is forecast to increase 3.4–4.1% q-o-q, with margins expanding by 20–50 basis points to about 53.5%, as per estimates by BofA Securities and Axis Capital.
The margin improvement is attributed to better network utilisation and operating leverage.
“Jio’s Ebitda to grow 3.5% QoQ on robust subs gain and 1.8% QoQ growth in ARPU to Rs 210… We expect 2.7% QoQ growth in Jio’s standalone revenue to Rs 31,200 crore and 3.5% QoQ growth in Ebitda to Rs 168 billion,” analysts from JM Financial said.
However, analysts noted that profit growth could be muted due to higher depreciation and amortisation expenses arising from the capitalisation of 5G spectrum and fixed assets at the end of FY25.
Average revenue per user (ARPU) is likely to increase to Rs 210 in Q1, compared to Rs 206 in the previous quarter. Brokerages attributed the rise to one extra day in the quarter, continued user upgrades, and the full impact of the tariff hike implemented in July 2024.
Jio continues to outpace peers on subscriber growth. Trai data for April and May shows Jio adding 5.3 million subscribers, and analysts expect the full-quarter figure to be around 7 million, including fixed wireless and fibre customers.
In the fixed wireless access (FWA) segment, Jio is estimated to have added close to 2 million subscribers in the June quarter, taking its total FWA base to over 7.5 million, or about 82% of the domestic market. Bharti trails significantly, with just 1.5 million FWA users as of May.
Jio’s enterprise segment is also expected to continue its growth momentum, in contrast to Bharti’s enterprise business, which is facing pressure from the exit of low-margin wholesale voice services.