All eyes are on the auto sales for October, given the festive sales during Dussehra, Dhanteras, and Diwali. Jefferies said strong festive demand was set to deliver solid October wholesale numbers across most large OEMs. In its India Autos: October Volume Estimates report dated October 27, the brokerage said passenger vehicle and two-wheeler registrations have risen 20- 23 % year-on-year (YoY) during the first 32 days of the festive season. This trend, it said, was expected to translate into double-digit growth for most manufacturers once October dispatch figures were announced.
This strength, Jefferies said, was expected to support wholesale volumes in October across most listed OEMs. Medium and heavy commercial vehicles, however, continued to show weakness, keeping overall CV growth subdued for the month.
Jefferies’ analysis showed broad-based momentum across passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, while commercial vehicles were likely to remain flat year-on-year. Among passenger-vehicle makers, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki were expected to post strong gains, with Mahindra & Mahindra also set for healthy growth.
Jefferies on India autos: Retail traction held firm through festive period
The Jefferies report highlighted that the festive demand had remained strong across vehicle categories, led by passenger vehicles and two-wheelers. Based on registration data from government sources, the brokerage highlighted that passenger vehicles and two-wheeler registrations grew more than 20% on a like-for-like basis compared with the same festive stretch last year.
This strength, Jefferies said, was expected to support wholesale volumes in October across most listed OEMs. Medium and heavy commercial vehicles, however, continued to show weakness, keeping overall CV growth subdued for the month.
Jefferies on Tata Motors: PVs rose sharply, CVs stayed muted
According to Jefferies, Tata Motors’ total October wholesales are estimated at 99,250 units, up 20% from 82,682 units a year earlier. Growth came from passenger vehicles, projected to rise 34% to 65,000 units, compared with 48,423 units last year. Commercial vehicles are expected to stay flat at 34,250 units.
Jefferies said that despite muted CV momentum, Tata Motors had benefited from strong festive demand in compact SUVs and electric models.
Jefferies on Maruti Suzuki: Domestic dispatches drive growth
Maruti Suzuki’s total wholesales are projected at 2.35 lakh units, up 14 % from 2.06 lakh units in the previous year. Domestic dispatches are expected at 1.97 lakh units, while exports could reach 38,000 units, both showing year-on-year increases of 14–15 %.
The report attributed the growth to steady demand for compact SUVs and hybrids. Production schedules, it said, had been aligned with festive-season trends, keeping inventory levels comfortable.
Jefferies on Mahindra & Mahindra: Improvement across auto and tractor lines
Mahindra & Mahindra’s October volumes are likely to reach 1.80 lakh units, an 11 % rise from 1.62 lakh units a year earlier. Within this, automotive volumes were estimated at 1.07 lakh units, up 11 %, and tractors at 73,000 units, up 12 %.
Jefferies said the company continued to gain from strong SUV demand and better rural sentiment supporting tractor sales.
Jefferies on Hero MotoCorp: Festive recovery
Hero MotoCorp is estimated to post total volumes of 7.83 lakh units in October, up 15 % from 6.79 lakh units in the year-ago period. The brokerage said rural demand and improved financing availability had supported sales momentum through the festive period.
This followed a sequential rise from September, when the company had dispatched 6.87 lakh units.
Jefferies on TVS Motor: scooters and 3Ws supported overall growth
TVS Motor’s total October volumes are pegged at 5.66 lakh units, up 16% from 4.89 lakh units in October 2024. Two-wheeler volumes are expected to be 5.50 lakh units, higher by 15 %, while three-wheelers could reach 16,000 units, a 47 % jump.
Jefferies said both domestic and export segments contributed to the rise, with scooters and three-wheelers showing particular strength.
Jefferies on Eicher Motors: steady month for Royal Enfield
Eicher Motors is expected to report total volumes of 1.32 lakh units, up 12 % from 1.18 lakh units a year earlier. Royal Enfield sales are projected at 1.25 lakh units, up 13 %, while the commercial-vehicle arm (VECV) was likely to grow 3 % to 7,350 units.
Jefferies said demand for Royal Enfield’s mid-segment motorcycles had remained firm in both domestic and export markets.
Jefferies on Bajaj Auto: Domestic recovery offset weaker exports
Bajaj Auto’s total volumes are estimated at 5.17 lakh units, up 8 % from 4.80 lakh units last year. Two-wheeler sales are expected to touch 4.40 lakh units, up 6 %, while three-wheelers could rise 18 % to 77,000 units.
The brokerage said domestic demand had improved, though exports remained under pressure due to currency issues in key markets. Sequentially, total volumes were up 1 % from September.
Jefferies on Hyundai India: Modest rise amid capacity limits
Hyundai Motor India is projected to post total volumes of 75,000 units for October, up 7 % from 70,078 units a year ago. Domestic volumes are expected at 57,000 units, with exports at 18,000 units.
The report said SUV demand stayed solid but production constraints continued to cap growth. Compared with September, total volumes were estimated to have improved 7 %.
Jefferies on Ashok Leyland: CV volumes steady on a low base
Ashok Leyland’s total October wholesales were projected at 16,800 units, up 10% from 15,310 units in October 2024. Medium and heavy CV volumes are expected at 9,800 units, up 4%, while light CVs could increase 19 % to 7,000 units.
Jefferies said truck demand remained uneven, while LCV and bus segments had held relatively stable.
Broader retail trend: strong base, uneven follow-through
According to the report, registration data for the 32-day festive window showed 23 % growth in two-wheelers and 20 % in passenger vehicles, with moderate increases in tractors and trucks. CVs were broadly flat.
Jefferies said that although the festive surge had set a firm base, sustainability beyond November would depend on retail momentum. Inventory across large OEMs was estimated at four to six weeks, broadly within normal limits.
Jefferies’ view of Auto sector
Jefferies said the auto industry entered November with firm momentum and a supportive demand backdrop. The brokerage expected retail traction in two-wheelers and passenger vehicles to stay strong into the next quarter, while commercial vehicles might take longer to gather pace.
Tractor sales were also seen improving on better rural liquidity and a normal monsoon. Export markets for two-wheelers, however, were still constrained by macroeconomic conditions in Africa and Latin America.
The report concluded that October’s festive surge marked one of the strongest starts to the second half of the fiscal year for the sector, setting a positive tone for the remainder of FY26. How retail demand shaped after the festive period, it said, would determine the pace of production and channel restocking into December.