Top auto sector executives on Wednesday pressed the need for sharper forecasting in the sector, stating that poor predictions on demand continue to weigh heavily on profitability and dealer health. Speaking at FADA’s Auto Retail Conclave, industry leaders pointed out that while incentives and performance targets often take the spotlight, forecasting must be treated as a central responsibility across the value chain.
Forecasting as a Critical Function
“Multiple people to forecast very accurately will have its own sense of variability. There will be challenges. So, I guess in this age and time, there is a need to bring in a lot more systems, which can forecast people a bit more accurately. And of course, all of us, especially at the OEM side, will have to make a concentrated effort to move from a wholesale based environment to a retail based environment,” Ashutosh Varma, chief business officer-IBU, Hero MotoCorp, said.
Echoing his view, Tarun Garg, whole-time director and chief operating fficer (sales, marketing, service product strategy) at Hyundai Motor India, said, “Forecasting was 80% of my job when I started in logistics operations in 1994, and even today as COO I am deeply involved in kit ordering and production planning. It is the most important task, yet often overlooked”.
Data, Tech and Festive Outlook
The growing reliance on Vahan-based registration data, instead of wholesale dispatches, was cited as a positive shift that brings transparency and curbs the practice of pushing excess stock onto dealers. With more states, including Telangana, joining Vahan, companies expect sharper insights into real demand patterns.
Technology is also reshaping planning. Executives noted the increasing use of algorithm-driven systems in spare parts management, which reduce overstocking risks. Yet challenges remain steep, especially in luxury and commercial segments where long import lead times and multiple variants make matching supply to demand far trickier. Some firms are responding by trimming model lines and colour options to simplify planning.
As the festive season nears, leaders expressed cautious optimism. They said that improved forecasting, coupled with GST reliefs, deeper Vahan integration, and steady consumer sentiment, can help smoothen the bumps in inventory management, if manufacturers, dealers, and policymakers stay aligned.