Representatives from nearly 200 countries at COP28 meeting in Dubai struck a new climate deal on Wednesday that, for the first time, called upon them to transition away from fossil fuels and operationalised a loss-and-damage fund to help developing nations recover from climate disasters.
The countries agreed to contribute towards tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the current annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, two measures considered key to keeping alive hopes of restricting temperature rise to within 1.5 degree Celsius.
They also agreed to accelerate the deployment of “zero- and low-emission technologies” like renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage.
An earlier provision that asked countries not to allow the launch of new coal-fired power plants without carbon capture and storage technology was dropped from the final agreement.
This provision was considered problematic by India, South Africa, China and many other countries. The agreement only asks countries to “accelerate efforts” towards a phase-down of “unabated coal power”, in a reiteration of what was agreed in Glasgow two years ago.
A tougher language on fossil fuels, calling for its “phase-out”, that had stalled negotiations for several days, could not be agreed upon and had to be changed. The Association of Small Island States, a group of island countries that face the worst impacts of climate change, could not hide its disappointment.
“The course corrections that were needed have not been secured. We have made incremental advancement over business as usual, when what we really needed was an exponential leap in our actions and support,” said Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator of Samoa, a small island country in the Pacific, who received loud applause in response.
“We reference the science throughout the text but then we refrain from taking the relevant action. It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what science is telling us what we need to do,” she said.
Fossil fuels – oil, natural gas, coal and their derivatives – contribute about 80% of all greenhouse gas emissions, but no earlier COP decision had ever even acknowledged its role, leave aside calling for reduction of its use.
The 43% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2019 levels, which is what science says must be done to remain on 1.5 degree Celsius pathway, cannot be achieved without significant decline in fossil fuel usage.
But countries like Saudi Arabia, which are major oil producers, insisted countries needed to focus on reducing emissions, and a phase-out of fossil fuels need not be prescribed.
The final agreement represented a compromise – no prescriptive “phase-out” but an acknowledgment that the world had to “transition away” from fossil fuels.
“Whilst we did not turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end,” said Simon Steil, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
“These climate conferences are, of course, a consensus-based process, meaning all parties must agree on every word, every comma, every full stop. This is not easy. It’s not easy at all,” he said.
But two of the most meaningful outcomes from COP28 – operationalisation of loss and damage fund, and tripling of global renewable capacity by 2030 – did indeed have wide acceptance among countries.
The Loss and Damage Fund, which was set up at Sharm el-Shaikh meeting last year, underwent its first capitalisation here, with countries together committing nearly $800 million.
The tripling of renewable energy and doubling of the rate of improvement of energy efficiency is considered an extremely important step towards meeting the emissions gap by 2030.
This move had already been endorsed by the G20 countries and it was widely expected to be adopted by the COP as well. But the agreement says nothing about how this is to be achieved, or which countries needed to do how much to reach tripling of global renewable capacity. An earlier mention of the exact target capacity – 11,000 GW by 2030 from the current about 3,400 GW – was also dropped.
A call for reducing methane emissions has also been included for the first time. Methane is the second most widespread greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide but much more potent in causing global warming. The United States was the most vocal in asking for methane emission cuts in the agreement, but countries like India and Philippines were reluctant.
Agricultural practices, and livestock, happen to be the major sources of methane emissions which are sensitive sectors for these countries. The final agreement calls for “accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030”, which, from India’s point of view, was an improvement from the more stringent provisions used in previous drafts that had quantified targets for emissions reduction.
COP28 also delivered an agreement on creating a framework for defining a global goal on adaptation. Adaptation is largely local in nature, but developing countries had been demanding that identifying some common global objectives could help bring more attention, and financial resources, to adaptation activities.
The final agreement identifies some of these common objectives, like making food and agriculture climate resilient, and reducing climate-induced water scarcity. A two-year work programme has been set up to decide the indicators that can measure progress on these efforts. But the adaptation agreement is extremely weak on financial provisions.