India denies reports claiming PM Modi will not attend SCO summit in Pakistan

Recent media reports suggesting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Pakistan have been firmly denied by the Indian government. The speculation arose following an invitation extended by Pakistan to PM Modi and other leaders for the Council of Heads of Government (CHG) meeting scheduled for October 15-16, 2024. The event is significant, given the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly concerning security issues in Kashmir.

Ministry of External Affairs’ Statement

Responding to these reports, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a clarification urging media outlets to refrain from speculating on the matter. An official from the MEA stated, “We have noticed several outlets are running news that the PM won’t attend a SCO meeting in Pakistan or EAM will attend a SCO meeting in Pakistan.”

Adding, “MEA hasn’t commented on this matter and would request speculative news in this regard be avoided.”

This statement emphasizes India’s position that no official decision has been made regarding the Prime Minister’s participation in the CHG meeting in Pakistan. The invitation from Pakistan follows SCO protocol, but the Indian government has yet to confirm whether PM Modi will attend, especially considering the recent escalation in cross-border tensions.

Historical Context and Tensions

The relationship between India and Pakistan has been marked by periods of hostility and limited cooperation. In recent months, these tensions have been exacerbated by increased terrorist infiltration into Kashmir, which India attributes to Pakistan’s continued support for extremist groups. Prime Minister Modi has been vocal about his stance on Pakistan’s role in promoting proxy warfare. On the occasion of Kargil Vijay Diwas in July, PM Modi strongly criticized Pakistan, asserting that the Indian Army would “completely crush” any nefarious designs aimed at destabilizing the region.

This backdrop of hostility casts doubts on the possibility of a high-profile visit by the Indian Prime Minister to Pakistan. While India has participated in SCO meetings in the past, including the CHG meetings, the current climate of mistrust makes any such visit politically sensitive.

The Strategic Importance of the SCO

The SCO, led by Russia and China, is a crucial multilateral platform for India, primarily for regional security and collaboration with Central Asian nations. India views the SCO as an essential forum for engaging with these countries, despite its cautious approach to China’s influence within the organization. Unlike other member states, India has consistently refused to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has been a point of contention in SCO joint statements.

India’s skepticism toward China’s motives was evident during last year’s virtual heads of state summit, where India declined to support a long-term economic strategy proposed by the SCO. India perceived this strategy as disproportionately favoring Chinese interests. This cautious approach extends to India’s participation in the upcoming CHG meeting, where China’s influence and Pakistan’s involvement present complex diplomatic challenges.

Pakistan’s Position and Invitation to PM Modi

Pakistan, currently holding the rotating chairmanship of the SCO’s Council of Heads of Government, is set to host the CHG meeting in Islamabad. The Pakistani government, led by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, has extended invitations to all SCO member states, including India. However, the prospect of improved India-Pakistan relations remains slim, particularly after PM Modi’s direct criticism of Pakistan during his Kargil Vijay Diwas speech.

Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to India last year for an SCO foreign ministers’ meeting was one of the few instances of diplomatic engagement between the two countries in recent years. However, any goodwill generated by such visits has been overshadowed by ongoing security concerns, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Issue of Airspace and Diplomatic Norms

Adding to the complexity of India-Pakistan relations is the recent incident involving PM Modi’s use of Pakistani airspace while returning from Ukraine. Pakistani media reported that PM Modi’s plane spent 46 minutes in Pakistani airspace, passing over Islamabad and Lahore. Traditionally, the use of another country’s airspace is accompanied by a goodwill message, but according to reports in the public domain, Pakistani sources, no such message was sent by the Indian Prime Minister.

The lack of a goodwill message is seen by some in Pakistan as a deliberate snub, highlighting the deep-seated mistrust between the two nations.

Uncertainty Over PM Modi’s Attendance

As the date of the SCO CHG meeting approaches, the question of whether PM Modi will attend remains unanswered. The Indian government’s cautious approach reflects the broader challenges in India-Pakistan relations, where security concerns and historical animosities continue to overshadow diplomatic engagements.

While the SCO provides a platform for regional cooperation, the strained relationship between India and Pakistan makes it unlikely that any significant breakthrough will occur during the upcoming summit.