War in Ukraine – It is Conventional war & not Hybrid or Gray

By Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM, (Retd)

Russian forces began a large-scale invasion of Ukraine early on Thursday morning local time as Vladimir Putin announced the start of a “special military operation.” This closed several months of speculation and debate over the purpose of Moscow’s military build-up. However, it is easier to start wars than to end them. Once begun, their course and consequences are impossible to predict. As they say no plan survives the first shot fired in anger. It is not clear what the end state Russia wants after the military operations.

Russian forces began shelling Ukraine, namely Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, Odessa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Kyiv oblasts. Russian and Belarusian forces attacked border units, border patrols and checkpoints with artillery, heavy equipment and small arms. This is happening within Luhansk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr oblasts, and also in Russia-occupied Crimea. Ukraine claimed to have shot down 5 enemy planes and one helicopter in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Some reports suggested that Russian troops had landed in Odessa and Mariupol. Other Ukrainian cities, including Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, and the capital city of Kyiv also reported explosions and artillery bombardments. 

There have been reports of explosions near Large Ukraine cities.

As of Thursday, Russian forces have launched more than 160 missiles into Ukraine, mainly short-and medium-range ballistic weapons. That includes short-range, medium-range, cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles and sea-launched missiles from the Black Sea. Russia has reportedly used approximately 75 fixed-wing heavy and medium bombers as a part of this initial onslaught. The targets so far have been primarily focused on military and air defence networks, barracks; ammunition warehouses. About 10 airfields have been targeted. Russia claimed to have destroyed more than 70 military targets.

CNN reported that Russian airborne forces had captured the Antonov airport outside of Kyiv. The soldiers were setting up an airbridge to bring in more Russian forces. The New York Times reported video footage of Russian military helicopters attacking the airport located in Hostomel. In Ukraine’s Chernobyl exclusion zone, Russian troops seized the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The site of the worst nuclear disaster in history is still contaminated from radioactive material.

The Ukrainian forces reported that Russian military vehicles had crossed the border near Kharkiv in the north, Luhansk in the east, Russian-annexed Crimea in the south and from Belarus too. Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko said his country’s military were not involved but could be if needed.

Russian tanks were later seen on the outskirts of Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people. Russian forces also reportedly landed by sea at Ukraine’s major port cities of Odessa on the Black Sea and Mariupol on the internal Sea of Azov.Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east. Residents of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, say windows in apartment blocks were shaking from constant blasts as the Ukrainian military and Russian forces exchanged shellfire. But clashes have also been taking place around the capital Kyiv in the north and the southern ports of Odessa and Mariupol.

Kyiv’s Boryspil international airport was among a number of airfields that had been bombed, along with military headquarters and warehouses in the big cities of Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Mariupol. Latest from Chuhuiv Airbase in Ukraine. Imagery captured on February 21 and today, February 24, 2022.

As of February 24 the situation is like the following:

This story is developing by the minute.These figures and images will keep changing as the operations progress.

This is conventional war and not Hybrid, Gray, Next Gen or Sub conventional Warfare as are being propagated over the years. As technology advances, tactics, techniques and procedures of waging war changes. Adversaries adopt with the changing situations. In 1971 Liberation War of Bangladesh leaflets were dropped over Pakistani army garrisons, Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw went on air to urge Pak Army to surrender guaranteeing their safety. Today same psychological operations may be carried out in TV, new and social media and by cyber means targeting individuals. Proxies will be used, in some cases contractors will be in the battlefield, Mercenary groups can be utilised, and Irregulars can join the battle. But the nature of warfare remains the same.

There is some debate about use of the term invasion. Western experts say, if a country sends tanks, armoured personnel carrier, guns troops to another country without the approval of that country it is invasion by law. Others say, if you go in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Panama, Vietnam it is liberation.

In 1991 during Operation Desert Storm the reporting of war changed drastically, courtesy CNN. War was broadcasted live to the drawing rooms. 31 years later another revolution in war reporting is taking place.It seems open source intelligence (OSINT) may cause the end of ‘fog of war’. It is difficult for Russian armed forces to hide the truth about his invasion of Ukraine when satellite images provide a clear picture for all to see.Satellite images of moving Russian troops. TikTok videos showing explosions in Ukraine, Bird’s eye live streams, filmed speeches from officials released via Telegram. Voices chattering over internet radio, official announcements via Twitter, endless delivery of data from every perspective can tell exactly what is happening in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Today with commercially available satellite imagery we are able to actually watch the build-up in the beginning stages of War. All is happening in open domain.One can count the number of Russian main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers and Iskander missiles, bombers and fighter aircrafts and naval ships in the Black SeaRevisit those images a week. This commercial technology is available outside of the government. It allows everyone to watch War happening.

This is 21st century research at its finest and real-time. If you follow this closely in the media, the coverage is quite brilliant. American Think Tanks like CSIS has formed a team analysing these OSINT inputs and meticulously framing Russia’s options and likely course of actions in some details. We will analyse those with the current operations as it unfolds.

(The author is an Indian Army Veteran. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).