By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan
The escalated violence in Sudan that has now entered its second week is an ongoing armed conflict between the rival factions of the military government of Sudan. The conflict precipitated on 15 April 2023 when clashes broke out across the country, mainly in the capital Khartoum and the Darfur region. The fighting is a direct result of a vicious power struggle within the country’s military leadership, i.e. between the regular army and a paramilitary force called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Over 433 people including an Indian national have died in the recent violence triggering a humanitarian catastrophe and raising fears of prolonged and unpredictable fighting to the finish. The three day ceasefire agreed between the two factions on account of Eid ul Fitr has not been held, providing just enough breather for people to flee.
The fighting is the latest episode in bouts of tension that followed the ousting of the long serving President Omar-al-Bashir in 2019. He had visited India for the India Africa Summit in 2015. Over 4000 Indian nationals are stranded in Sudan raising deep concerns of their safety and security and possible plans of evacuation based on the ground situation; the Indian Embassy in Khartoum is located in the fighting zone, just opposite the airport in the city and the staffers are operating from their homes. Of the 4000 Indians, an estimated 1500 are long term residents, while others are working on various projects including those financed from Indian lines of credits.
Since the 2001 coup the country has been run by a council of generals, led by two military men at the centre of the dispute: Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the armed forces and in effect Sudan’s President and his deputy and leader of the RSF Gen Mohammed Hamaadn Dagalo, better known as Hamedti. They have disagreed on the direction the country is going in and the proposed move towards civilian rule. The RSF favours a slower transition to civilian rule, while the army favours a transition within the next two years. The main sticking points are plans to include the 100,000 strong RSF into the army, and who would then lead the new force.
The RSF was formed in 2013 and has its origins in the notorious Janjaweed militia that brutally fought rebels in Darfur, where they were accused of ethnic cleansing. Since then, Gen Dagalo has built a powerful force that has intervened in the conflicts in Yemen and Libya, has developed economic interests including controlling some of Sudan’s gold mines. The RSF has been accused of human rights abuses, including the massacre of 120 protestors in June 2019. Such a strong force outside the army is seen as a source of instability in the country.
Following the clamour for civilian rule, a joint civilian-military government was established but was overthrown in another coup in October 2021, when Gen Burham took over. Since then the rivalry between him and Gen Dagalo has intensified. A framework deal to put power back in the hands of civilians was agreed last December but talks to finalise the details failed.
Gen Dagalo has said that the 2021 coup was a mistake and has tried to present himself and his RSF on the side of the people, against the Khartoum elites. While he has some support, others find this message hard to believe given its brutal track record. Meanwhile Gen Burham has said the army will only fully hand over power to an elected government, further side lining civilian representatives expected to be part of a power sharing deal. It is widely suspected that both military men, and their supporters, are worried about what might happen to their wealth and influence if they are removed from their powerful positions. The civilians have called for the handover of lucrative military holdings in agriculture, trade and other industries, a crucial source of power for an army that has often outsourced military action to regional militias.
The prolonged instability and conflict has left Sudan’s economy in shambles, with an inflation rate of over 600 per cent. Parts of the country are already facing famine, and more than 40% of the population requires emergency food aid. More than 1 m people have fled as refugees, and almost 2 m are displaced internally. Sudan is in northeast Africa and is one of the largest countries in the continent, covering 1.9 m sq km. It is also one of the poorest countries in the world, with its 46m people living on an average annual per capita income of $750. The population is predominantly Muslim and the country ‘s official language is Arabic and English. Sudan has one of the highest numbers of people in the emergency level of food insecurity (IPC4) with 3.1m people affected. Over 3 million children under 5 suffer from acute malnutrition, of which 650,000 suffer from severe acute malnutrition.
There are fears that fighting could further fragment the country, worsen political turbulence and draw in the neighbouring states. Over 20,000 have fled to neighbouring Chad since the conflict escalated a week ago, many other neighbours have expressed misgivings about their readiness to accept hordes of refugees.
Sudan is in a volatile region bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel region and Horn of Africa. Its strategic location and agriculture wealth has attracted regional power plays complicating the chances of a. successful transition to civilian rule. Its neighbours such as Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan have internal conflicts of their own and with Ethiopia Sudan has border issues. Major geopolitical dimensions are also at play with Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia and UAE battling for influence in Sudan. Egypt and UAE have seen Sudan’s transition as an opportunity to push back against Islamist influence in the region. They, along with US and UK, form the Quad, which has sponsored mediation in Sudan along with the UN and African Union. Western powers fear the potential for a Russian base on the Red Sea, which Sudanese military leaders have expressed openness to.
Diplomatic efforts are ongoing to get the two generals to talk. In a regional solution it was agreed to send three presidents-from Kenya, South Sudan and Djibouti-to Khartoum, but it is unclear if they can make the trip as no planes are flying in or out of the country. The US, UK and EU have called for a ceasefire and talks to resolve the crisis.
Multiple countries are drawing up plans for evacuation of their nationals with Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the pole position to pull out their diplomats/forces. The main threats Indians and other expatriates are facing emerges from indiscriminate firing and bombing with air strikes and tanks firing in densely populated districts from morning till late night, apart from looting and shortage of basic amenities like food and electricity. Medics have warned of a catastrophe as the hospitals have come under cross fire. Several countries have had to put their evacuation plans on hold while the US is deploying forces nearby in the region to assist in evacuating its diplomats from Sudan. India is in contact with quartet countries, US, UK, Saudi Arabia and UAE, apart from the Sudanese forces. At the time of writing, everyone has been advised to stay where they are.
The Indian PM has held an emergency meeting to evaluate the rapidly evolving and fluid situation. The Indian Foreign Minister has personally spoken with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt, apart from the UN Secretary General to assess the situation with a view to ensure the well-being of Indians and their possible evacuation. Meanwhile, the standard operating procedures in such situations have been activated and every Indian in Sudan is being located and counselled, along with their families in India. The issue of evacuation appears to have become a political factor in the Karnataka state that is going into elections next month, about 181 members of the semi nomadic Hakki Pikki tribe are in Sudan to sell herbal products.
Author is former Indian Ambassador.
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