By Stuti Gogoi and Vaishnavi

In a recent interview, Benjamin Netanyahu showed willingness to offer some concessions to the Palestinians if it were to be the necessary condition for moving ahead with the normalization deal between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the state of Israel. Meanwhile, he also indicated the triviality of the issue for Israel by stating: “I think the Palestinian thing is brought in all the time, and it’s sort of a check box. You have to check it to say that you’re doing it.” However, Saudi Arabia’s action implies a different stand as on August 12, it appointed its first-ever ambassador to the Palestinians. This effort shows that the Kingdom is keen on keeping up with the trust of Palestinians.

The USA has been making concerted efforts towards mediating a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, John Kirby, US National Security Council spokesperson, clarified that they are far away from a deal as “there’s no agreed-to set of negotiations, there’s no agreed-to framework to codify normalization or any of the other security considerations that we and our friends have in the region.” While Saudi Arabia has been demanding a NATO-like mutual defense agreement, backing its civil nuclear program, and the ability to purchase more advanced weaponry from the USA, it has also emphasized on “significant concessions” to the Palestinians as an important condition to the deal. What exactly these conditions are still remains ambiguous. However, this condition of “significant concessions”, opens a small window for the Palestinians to give a push for certain reforms and demands that finds no scope of being heard under the current far-right regime.

The Palestinian Stake

Palestine’s situation seems to have worsened over the past few months. In a recently held UNSC meeting, the members highlighted the deteriorating situation in the West Bank. The press report of the meeting states the growing concern of the members over the increasing violence killing people from both sides and especially emphasizing the unilateral steps taken by Israel to undermine the two-state solution. These developments have resulted in undermining the position of the Palestinian Authority (PA), further worsening the legitimacy crisis. This degraded position of the PA, as visible in a public opinion poll conducted by Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in March 2023, might result in greater support for Hamas in the West Bank. Thus, PA can use the deal to regain the trust of the Palestinians and instead of remaining as a passive observer, it can actively raise the issues and get certain favorable concessions. 

A way towards this could be to take benefit out of Saudi Arabia’s renewed pursuit of the role as a peace mediator, whether it’s between the warring sides in Sudan or in the case of the Ukraine Peace talk. The PA today can voice its demands for the revisiting of the Arab Peace Initiative (API) of 2002. Proposed by King Abdullah, the deal posed three major demands to Israel: first called for a withdrawal from all territories occupied since 1967, including the Syrian Golan heights, second was resorting to a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem adhering the UNGA Resolution 194 and lastly a sovereign Palestine state, in the west bank and Gaza strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital.  While the demands in themselves are sufficient to indicate that Israel will not accept the API in its original form, it can definitely serve as a reference point for the negotiations.

Meanwhile, there are reports of a severe fund crunch in the World Food Program that provides food aid to the Palestinians which has sparked concerns amongst humanitarians. As of August 2023, the UN Agency has suspended its food aid to roughly 200,000 Palestinians accounting for 60% of its beneficiaries in what has been termed as the largest fund cut in Palestinian territories. This creates an immediate necessity of funds. Just two days after his official appointment as the ambassador, Nayef al-Sudairi, has reportedly given a breakdown of the aid that Saudi Arabia has given to the Palestinians, both directly and through the UN. According to him, Saudi has given 51 billion Riyals (roughly US$ 13 million), in aid to Palestinians, out of which 29 billion riyals (US$ 7 million) went directly to the PA. But it is time to move on from aid, and demand for investments should be made. While the 2019 “Peace to Prosperity” workshop failed and saw demonstrations against it, with the improved relations with the USA and Saudi the process of seeking investments can be resumed going hand in hand with the political negotiations.

Need for Reconciliation: The Road Ahead

However, reconciliation remains the key for things to move ahead. One major obstacle in putting forward the Palestinian case is the rift between PA and Hamas and any opportunity for reconciliation should not be missed. The longstanding deal on the Gaza Marine Gas field, pending since 1999, received a go-ahead from Israel last month. The gas deal, if finalized could be a much-needed boost to the PA which is severely cash-strapped. Reports suggest that the PA could save as much as $560 million annually in the gas tax that it pays to Israel currently. This could also be a window for the PA and Hamas to negotiate since the stakeholders in the deal have clearly stated that Hamas cannot be directly engaged. This could be a decisive call for a unified Palestinian leadership as Hamas, despite its reservations about the legitimacy of the PA to deal with issues pertaining to Gaza, would eventually see the vast benefits that the gas deal may bring about. It would also lead to a significant reduction in foreign dependence. The developments around the Marine deal might present an opportune time for Fatah and Hamas to arrive at a leadership arrangement that would present a common Palestinian front.

The Saudi-Israel Deal on its own seems to be a hard bargain seeking to reconcile aspects that defy the geopolitical logic. For instance, Saudi insistence on US support for its civil nuclear program seems a tough ball to pass through the US Congress. On the other hand, the deal also is at odds with the longstanding Israeli position on Palestine, which has only strengthened with the coming of the far-right government. This is apparent in Israel’s rejection of the possibility of a Saudi consulate in Jerusalem.

While for now there is a lot to work on with regards to the deal the questions are: where does Palestine and its cause stand amid the historic warm-up in the Arab world? And as the year 2023 marks 75 years of the “Nakba”, are we any closer to peace? 

About the authors

Stuti Gogoi is pursuing her Masters Degree in Politics with Specialisation in International Studies from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Her areas of interest are the West Asia and North Africa region with a primary focus on energy transition and oil politics and conflicts.

Vaishnavi is pursuing her Masters Degree in International Relations and Area Studies from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Her area of interest is the West Asian region and the foreign policies of the state and how great power politics impacts the region. 

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