By Col Rajinder Singh (retd)
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has gone about his offensive plans on Ukraine in a computerised manner. Three months back, he had amassed his 1.5 lakh troops on the three sides of Ukraine border and awaited for world reaction. He saw only empty threats being mouthed but no concrete steps being taken by the USA / EU and UN to stall his impending offensive.
The reaction of USA/ West after the attack reminds one of appeasement of Hitler by then British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain , when Hitler invaded Poland to start the second world war. British inaction then, had emboldened Hitler. Same script has been repeated by Joe Biden/ Boris Johnson. Encouraged by the empty rants of the West, Putin launched his pre- planned military offensive on 23 February 2022.
It may be noted that offensive plans were not to capture Ukraine entirely but to browbeat it to submit to Russian designs of keeping Ukraine out of NATO sphere of influence. In so doing, it wanted to slice away certain territories of Ukraine to force its will on it. The two rebellious regions of Ukraine, namely, Donbass and Luhansk have been declared and recognised as independent Republics by Russia. It was reason enough for him to send his military into these regions and declare a war on Ukraine. Russia is pounding Ukraine’s cities, airports and Military bases with cruise and ballistic missiles along with airstrikes and artillery guns. Mechanised infantry and armoured vehicles have moved into Donbass and Luhansk.
It was a calculated move, where Putin gave a higher priority to “geopolitical gains” than “economic loss” occurring due to the threat of an economic blockade. The levying of “sanctions” by the USA & UK were meaningless for Russia and it had fully catered for it in its scheme of the offensive plans. In fact, the “sanctions” would severely punish the EU only because it was wholly dependent on Russian Gas/ petrol supply which would be fully blocked. The UN being a toothless organisation is in no position to checkmate Russia. No UN resolution can see the light of the day because Russia is a P-5 member of UNSC. Not only this, Russia is seemingly supported by other P-5 members i. e. China.
What are Russian political and military objectives?
Military objectives seem to be not only sufficient capture of Ukraine territories but also adequately destroying Ukraine’s military potential to force it to accept Russian terms of peace. Putin knew that the West would not act militarily because Ukraine was still not a NATO member and UNSC cannot pass a resolution for a military intervention as it would be vetoed by China and Russia.
The political objective is not only to keep NATO at an arm’s length but also warn other erstwhile nations, which once, like Ukraine, comprised the Soviet Union, to stay in the Russian sphere of influence . To quote the BBC , Vladimir Putin asserted ,” Ukraine was a fake country and it didn’t deserve to exist”. Putin is further quoted to have said that those who endanger Russian national security, would be made to undergo an unimaginable horrible experience.
Whatever the outcome of the Russian offensive , its fallout is dreadful for the world. ‘Might is right’ and ‘big fish eating the small fish’ would entice others too. It has set a precedence for the powerful nations of the world to act at free will against smaller and weaker nations. Also, it exhibits impotence and toothlessness of the UN in such cases . In the past the USA alone did it , such as in Iraq and Afghanistan . Now Russia has gone ahead , enticing China to do so .
China has been eyeing Taiwan for ling as part of its “ One China policy”. Over the last one year or so , China has been flexing its muscles. It has been sending its fighters into Taiwan airspace . But it has been sulking due to US military intervention . Out of 11 aircraft Carriers of the USA, two/ three aircraft carriers are always around the South China Sea. Taiwan is neither recognised as a nation by the USA , nor it is a member of NATO or any other US military alliance. Therefore, Russian action in Ukraine has proven that the USA was like an empty vessel that makes a lot of noise. This incident is a signal for China to go for Taiwan .
Besides, setting a precedence of “intervention at will”, the Russian action has exposed current American leadership being weak kneed. To be frank , the absence of concrete US action to stop Russian invasion of Ukraine, is an adverse comment on Joe Biden’s presidency . He has already taken a hit on his popularity due to the sudden and surprise pull out of US troops from Afghanistan in July- August 2021. With this inaction, the American credibility has further nose dived . Nations who ally with the USA would have to be careful in future . In any case , the USA is better known to follow the policy of “Use And Throw”. From Kampuchea to Vietnam to Pakistan , the list is long.
It is a lesson for India too.
China can train its guns on India too. Therefore, to depend on so called “Quad” to come to India’s aid in times of military clash over Ladakh or Arunachal with China is not recommended. Though China has Taiwan as its priority now, in the near future , it can create a similar problem for India by following the Russian example . Besides this , India has to cope with economic crisis spearheaded by spiralling oil prices . Military too will have torrid time for imported weaponry and military equipment . Attaining “ Self Reliance” or “Atamnirbharta” in military hardware at a breath neck speed was the only way to avoid “Ukraine” type fate .
In conclusion, one can say that the world has entered a period of “ Geopolitical uncertainty” . What China did through the “ Wuhan Virus” is one dimension. What, but Russia has done now proves that possession of WMDs by mighty world powers, was a deterrence to act against each other’s unholy acts. Toothless organisations like UN have lost their relevance . World has to seek a more effective “Ring Master” of the world .
(The author is a renowned author and a defence analyst. His bestselling books are on Kashmir- A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency besides being a contribution on two other books. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).