Tensions in the Middle East have reached a boiling point, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warning G7 counterparts about a potential attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel as early as Monday. The situation is further aggravated by speculations in Israel’s leading daily, the `Times of Israel’, suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government might consider a preemptive strike on Iran to prevent an attack on Israeli soil. This report comes amidst heightened activities from Israel’s intelligence agencies, Mossad and Shin Bet, alongside key defence figures.
The Expert Opinions
Md. Muddassir Quamar, Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, believes that Iran and its allies are under immense pressure to respond to recent events. “Iran and the ‘axis of resistance’ are under unprecedented pressure to respond to Haniyeh’s assassination. They need to demonstrate their capability to match the might of Israel and the US militarily,” Quamar notes. However, he cautions against a response that might escalate into a full-blown war, stating, “It has to be something that satisfies the domestic constituency, the proxies, as well as the wider global audience, without attracting serious retribution that endangers Iranian security. Iran would still try to avoid a war.”
Ambassador Anil Trigunayat echoes these concerns, emphasizing the volatility of the situation. “Consequent upon the violation of Iran’s sovereignty when Hamas Leader Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, it was almost certain that Iran would retaliate,” Trigunayat explains. He points out the increasing attacks by Iran’s allies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, on Israeli military and other facilities. “The spiraling of attacks and counterattacks and direct kinetic engagement between Tehran and Tel Aviv will be a dangerous and destabilizing escalation for the region and the world, which can hopefully be kept under the threshold,” he adds.
Background
Hezbollah, established in the early 1980s with Iranian support, has been a central player in the region’s ongoing tensions. As Iran’s first proxy in the Middle East, Hezbollah is heavily funded and armed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and shares Tehran’s core ideology. Recently, Iran announced that Hezbollah might escalate its attacks deeper into Israeli territory, potentially targeting more than just military installations. This follows the assassination of senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, allegedly at the hands of Israeli forces.
The situation has become increasingly dire, with near-daily exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. This escalation began on October 7, when Hamas launched an attack on Israel, triggering the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The last significant conflict between Hezbollah and Israel occurred in the summer of 2006, resulting in devastating consequences, including Israel bombing Beirut’s only passenger airport.
Current Developments
In response to these tensions, various embassies, including India’s, have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon while commercial flights remain available. The potential for full-scale conflict looms large, with cross-border skirmishes threatening to spiral out of control. Antony Blinken’s recent conference call with G7 foreign ministers aimed at de-escalating the situation underscores the international community’s concern.
Conclusion
As the world watches anxiously, the potential for conflict between Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel remains high. The international community’s efforts to mediate and prevent further escalation are crucial in these tense times. With expert opinions highlighting the precarious nature of the situation, any misstep could lead to devastating consequences for the region and beyond.