Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has expressed a deep fear for his life, a fear rooted in the potential repercussions of forging closer ties with Israel. The prince’s concerns echo the tragic fate of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who was assassinated in 1981 after signing a peace agreement with Israel. This fear is not just personal but also tied to the complex political landscape of the Middle East, where any compromise with Israel, particularly one that excludes Palestinian recognition, could incite severe backlash.

The Historical Parallel: Anwar Sadat’s Assassination

Anwar Sadat, who served as Egypt’s President from 1970 to 1981, became the first Arab leader to sign a peace treaty with Israel. His bold move ended decades of enmity but also made him a target for extremists who viewed his actions as a betrayal of the Arab cause. Sadat was assassinated during a military parade in Cairo in 1981 by members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, a group that vehemently opposed his peace efforts. His death sent shockwaves throughout the Arab world and serves as a stark reminder of the dangers faced by leaders who pursue peace with Israel.

MBS sees a similar threat looming over him if he were to advance diplomatic relations with Israel, especially if such an agreement neglects the Palestinian cause. The prince has reportedly conveyed these fears to U.S. lawmakers, emphasizing that any normalization of ties with Israel must include a credible pathway to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Without this, he believes, his life and his position as the guardian of Islam’s holiest sites would be in grave danger.

The Stakes for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia holds a dominant position in the Muslim world, and any move it makes on the Israel-Palestine issue could have far-reaching consequences. The United States is currently pushing for a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a move that would be historic given the long-standing animosity between the two nations. In return, the US has offered to bolster Saudi Arabia’s security, support its civilian nuclear program, and increase investment in the Kingdom.

For MBS, the benefits of such a deal are clear. Enhanced security guarantees from the US and access to advanced technology, including civilian nuclear capabilities, would significantly strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position in the region. However, the Prince is acutely aware that moving forward without addressing the Palestinian issue could spark widespread unrest, not only in Saudi Arabia but across the Muslim world. The legitimacy of his leadership, particularly his role as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, could be called into question, potentially leading to violent opposition.

The Palestinian Question

The crux of the issue lies in the Palestinian question. MBS has made it clear that he cannot proceed with normalization unless there is a concrete plan for Palestinian statehood. This stance puts him at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has shown little interest in recognizing an independent Palestinian state. The stalemate reflects the broader geopolitical tension in the region, where Saudi Arabia’s desire for modernization and closer ties with the West must be balanced against its role as a leader in the Muslim world.

The Shadow of Sadat

MBS’s fear of assassination is not unfounded. The assassination of Anwar Sadat serves as a grim precedent for what could happen if a leader is perceived as compromising on critical issues like the Palestinian cause. The memory of Sadat’s assassination looms large over MBS’s decision-making process, influencing his cautious approach to any potential deal with Israel.