India’s power demand cooled down an estimated 0.3% to 123 billion units (BUs) in November compared with 124 BUs a year ago due to lower temperatures. This comes after a nearly 6% on-month degrowth in October, according to Crisil Intelligence.
The country’s power demand is estimated to have declined approximately 0.1% on-year in the April-November period. However, India recorded a peak power demand of 216 GW in November 2025, the highest since FY16. Electricity prices in the spot market also declined in November. Enhanced hydro, wind, and solar generation resulted in higher supply liquidity on the exchange platform, leading to a decline in day ahead market (DAM) and real time market(RTM) prices.
MCP declines in RTM
In RTM, the average market clearing price (MCP) declined 9% on-year to Rs 3.13/unit in November, indicating ample availability amid tepid electricity requirements. The market clearing price for DAM declined as well, by approximately 7% on-year to Rs 3/unit. These prices enabled distribution companies and commercial and industrial consumers to meet demand at a competitive price and replace costlier power by procuring through the exchange.
Interestingly, the spread between RTM and DAM volumes declined to ~1,393 million units (MU) in November against the average 2,401 MU from June 2020-October 2025, Crisil said. Volumes in the RTM segment increased ~41% on-year (April-November) compared with a ~1% decline in the DAM segment. “This indicates a probable shift in buyer behaviour in the power exchange market due to temperature fluctuation, highlighting greater power requirement for immediate delivery,” Crisil said.
Tracking power demand in India
Tracking the power demand, electricity generation increased a marginal 0.5% on-year to 134 BUs in November. Renewable energy (RE)-based generation is estimated to have increased ~17% on-year, rising for the eighth time this fiscal. Crisil noted that this generation growth is attributed to rising capacity additions with hydro power registering a growth rate of 27.6% year-on-year in November on the back of an above-normal and extended southwest monsoon.
Conversely, coal-based power generation declined for a second time this quarter. As per Crisil’s estimates, coal generation is estimated to have declined ~3.5% on-year in November after shrinking 14% on-year in October. As a result, coal accounted for ~72% of the total power output against 75% a year ago, highlighting the ease it offers in ramping production up or down in sync with power demand, Crisil said.
With coal remaining the key source of electricity in India, the decline in coal-based power generation has led to higher inventories with power plants. As of November 30, thermal power plants had 54 million tonne (MT) of coal. Coal inventory stood at 18 days, compared with 14 days in November 2024.
This increase in inventory comes amid off-take to the power sector declining 5.5% on-year in November. The offtake to the power sector declined 3.17% on-year from April-October. “This highlights the lower demand for thermal coal from the power sector due to expansion in RE generation,” said Crisil. Off-take to the non-regulated sector increased 7.43% led by the steel and cement sector, which registered 29.9% and 24.15% on-year growth, respectively.
Crisil estimate power demand to increase 1-3% on-year this fiscal to 1,715-1,725 BU, sustained by steady economic performance and increasing disposable income. Vagaries of the weather will likely limit power demand growth, it added.
The country has added 418 BU of power demand between fiscals 2021 and 2025.