By Commander Rahul Verma (Retd)
Pakistan’s Navy Day on September 8 serves as a moment of reflection, not just on the country’s naval achievements, but on the shifting tides of regional power. As Pakistan leans increasingly on China for naval modernisation—symbolised by its acquisition of Hangor-class submarines—the Indian Ocean is becoming a battleground for influence, with India, backed by US defence systems, playing a central role. This escalating arms race raises crucial questions about Pakistan’s long-term strategic choices, as India fortifies its maritime position through cutting-edge technology and strategic alliances.
Pakistan’s Reliance on China: An Asymmetric Partnership
Pakistan’s naval development is intricately tied to China’s strategic ambitions. Over the past decade, China has become Pakistan’s primary defence partner, supplying everything from submarines to surface ships. The recently launched Hangor-class submarines, built as an export variant of the Chinese Type 039B Yuan-class, are designed to boost Pakistan’s anti-submarine and strike capabilities. These submarines signal Pakistan’s intent to counterbalance India’s naval superiority, but they also illustrate a deeper reliance on Beijing.
While four of the eight submarines are being constructed in China, the remaining four will be built at Pakistan’s Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KS&EW), reflecting some domestic involvement. However, despite this local contribution, the project highlights Pakistan’s dependence on Chinese technology and expertise. The Hangor-class submarines may also carry Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM), enhancing Pakistan’s second-strike capability, though the final configurations of the subsystems remain unclear.
This level of dependency makes Pakistan vulnerable to China’s strategic priorities in the region. As Islamabad continues to rely on Chinese technology, it risks sacrificing its strategic autonomy, especially in the face of a rapidly evolving naval landscape in the Indian Ocean.
India’s Counterbalance: Advanced Anti-Submarine Warfare
In stark contrast to Pakistan’s dependence on China, India is pursuing a dual strategy of indigenous naval development and strengthening ties with the U.S. India’s recent test of its supersonic missile-assisted release of torpedo (SMART) system is a case in point. The SMART system is designed to detect and destroy submarines like Pakistan’s Hangor-class, delivering torpedoes with precision over vast distances.
India’s anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities are further bolstered by its acquisition of advanced systems such as the P-8I Poseidon aircraft, known for its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, and the MH-60R Seahawk helicopters, which excel in submarine detection. Additionally, India’s growing fleet of MQ-9B Reaper drones provides unparalleled ISR coverage in the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean, giving it a significant edge in maritime domain awareness.
These technological advancements, combined with India’s robust indigenous defence industry, illustrate a well-rounded approach to maintaining naval superiority. India’s ability to develop and acquire these cutting-edge systems showcases its shift from merely reacting to threats, to proactively shaping the strategic environment.
The U.S.-India Strategic Alliance: Expanding Naval Influence
At the heart of India’s growing naval strength is its deepening defence relationship with the U.S. India’s 2023 inclusion in the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) has opened the door to greater interoperability with the U.S. Navy and other major maritime powers. As a full member of the CMF, India now plays a leadership role in Combined Task Forces (CTFs), enabling joint missions that address challenges like piracy, illegal fishing, and maritime chokepoint security.
Foundational defence agreements such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) have further strengthened India’s strategic position. These agreements allow India access to U.S. intelligence, secure communications, and logistical support, enabling both nations to coordinate naval operations in the Indian Ocean and beyond seamlessly. India’s growing leadership within the CMF represents not only a military advantage but also a geopolitical statement, positioning India as a critical counterbalance to China’s increasing presence in the region.
Pakistan’s Strategy: Asymmetry and the Limits of Deterrence
Faced with India’s growing conventional superiority, Pakistan has focused heavily on asymmetric warfare strategies, including sea-based nuclear deterrence. The Babur-3 SLCM, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is central to Pakistan’s “full spectrum deterrence” strategy. This doctrine, which combines tactical nuclear weapons with long-range strike capabilities, is designed to offset India’s conventional military advantages.
However, Pakistan’s heavy reliance on nuclear deterrence as the backbone of its naval strategy comes with inherent risks. By tying its operational flexibility to its nuclear arsenal, Pakistan risks escalating conflicts at the slightest provocation. Moreover, its dependence on Chinese technology for advanced platforms like the Hangor-class submarines limits its ability to independently project naval power.
The Strategic Implications: Regional Power Dynamics
As Pakistan continues to depend on China, its strategic options become narrower. In contrast, India’s self-reliance and its expanding ties with the U.S. provide it with multiple avenues to exert influence in the Indian Ocean. India’s access to advanced technology, combined with its growing indigenous production, allows it to maintain a flexible and adaptive naval strategy.
China’s deepening involvement with Pakistan, from the Hangor-class submarines to potential joint submarine operations, poses significant challenges to India’s dominance in the Indian Ocean. However, India’s leadership in regional security forums like the CMF, coupled with its technological edge, makes it a formidable counterbalance to China’s ambitions.
A Call for Strategic Realignment
For Pakistan, the long-term risks of dependence on China are clear. As it celebrates Navy Day, Pakistan must reflect on the importance of developing its indigenous naval industry. While China’s support provides short-term gains, it binds Pakistan’s strategic choices to Beijing’s interests, particularly in the Indian Ocean.
To secure its maritime future, Pakistan must invest in building a self-sufficient navy, capable of defending its interests without relying on external suppliers. India’s model of combining domestic production with strategic alliances offers a blueprint for success. If Pakistan does not realign its strategy toward greater independence, it risks falling further behind in the regional naval arms race.
The author is an Emerging Technology and Prioritisation Scout for a leading Indian Multi-National Corporation, focusing on advancing force modernisation through innovative technological applications and operational concepts. With 21 years as a Naval Aviator, including a distinguished role in the Indian Navy’s Technology Development Acceleration Cell, he brings diverse aviation experiences, from Seaking Pilot to RPAS Mission Commander and Flying Instructor.
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