By Group Captain Praveer Purohit (Retd) 

Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) held a summit meeting in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania on 11 and 12 July. The meeting was held against the backdrop of a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Uncertain) security environment in Europe, the causal factor being the Russian invasion of Ukraine. NATO being a security organization, there is no fixed periodicity of summit meetings. Instead, these are often held at key moments in the Alliance’s evolution and are important junctures in the Alliance’s decision-making process. In the summits, the body could introduce new policy, invite new members into the alliance, launch major initiatives and reinforce partnerships. The summit meetings are attended by the Heads of State or Government, held in a NATO member country and chaired by the NATO Secretary General. NATO was created by 12 founder-countries on 04 April 1949. By 1982, it had added four. Since the accession of Finland on 04 April 2023, NATO has 31 member countriescovering a total area of 27,131,087 km2.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was into its seventeenth month when the Vilnius summit began. Even as Ukraine faced large-scale death, destruction and disruption, the effects of the invasion did not escape the rest of the world. Europe was particularly affected, both due to its proximity to Russia and dependence on Russian energy supplies. The imposition of sanctions on Russia had a ripple effect on European economies too, with rising inflation, food prices and financial fragility in households. Fifteen months into the war (till 23 May 2023), the European Union (EU) had already committed Euro 70 billion in financial, humanitarian, and military assistance to Ukraine.Though EU and NATO continued to support Ukraine, the risk of European public support reducing was real. Surprisingly however, going into the NATO summit, the European public opinion was stable. In fact, many EU citizens changed habits at home to save on energy.

The summit began with hectic parleys between the leaders of NATO countries on 11 July 2023 and the Vilnius Summit Communiqué was issued late in the evening. Running into over 11250 words and comprising 90 paragraphs, the communiquéspells in detail the trajectory of NATO and reiterates the clear and present dangers to peace, stability and security posed by Russia.Ukraine finds a mention 48 times in it. The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky was specially invited for the meeting of NATO-Ukraine Council held during the summit. On 12 July, leaders of G7 countries met and announced plans for long- term security commitments to Ukraine.The new framework seeks to create bilateral security commitments between individual G7 member states and Ukraine, providing security assistance, modern military equipment, and economic assistance “for as long as it takes.”

Ukraine has sought to join NATO for a long time. However, there was no consensus on immediately admitting Ukraine into NATO. Many East European, Nordic, and some Western European allies were in favour of hastening Ukraine’s admission but USA and Germany expressed caution. The communiqué stated, “the Alliance will support Ukraine in making these reforms on its path towards future membership. We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.” President Zelensky tweeted his displeasure stating, “It’s unprecedented and absurd when [a] time frame is not set, neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine.” However, NATO took significant steps with respect to Ukraine. Firstly, it was agreed that Ukraine would no longer need to meet a Membership Action Plan, and the NATO-Ukraine Commission would become a NATO- Ukraine Council. The council is a new joint body where Allies and Ukraine sit as equal members to advance political dialogue, engagement, cooperation, and Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO.  It will provide for joint consultations, decision-making, and activities, and will also serve as a crisis consultation mechanism between NATO and Ukraine.This implied an affirmative response to the “whether” of Ukraine’s NATO membership but that the “when” and “how” of Ukraine’s accession is still a ‘work- in- progress’. Second, the communiqué text made clear that, “We do not and will never recognize Russia’s illegal and illegitimate annexations, including Crimea.” Third, NATO agreed on a “substantial package of expanded political and practical support” for Ukraine.

Another success of the summit was the agreement to induct Sweden as its 32nd member when Turkey withdrew its opposition to Sweden’s membership. The NATO members labelled the Russian Federation as the “most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area” and called out Belarus and Iran for their support to Russia in the ongoing war. The summit in Vilnius was an opportunity for NATO to deliberate on the Alliance in an era of great power rivalry and strategic competition. Notably, therefore besides Russia, it focussed on the threats posed by China. The leaders, through their communiqué, reaffirmed the Alliance’s renewed strength and growing attention to China, and the broader Indo-Pacific region. They reiterated China’s threat to NATO’s “interests, security and values,” “malicious” hybrid and cyber operations, disinformation, and efforts to control key tech sectors, critical minerals, and supply chains. Noting China’s deepening strategic partnership with Russia, NATO leaders urged Beijing to abstain from all forms of support for Russia’s war against Ukraine—particularly the provision of any lethal aid. The NATO summit justifiably gave attention to building hard power and enhancing its conventional deterrence, in the face of both, conventional, and hybrid threats.

Conventional deterrence measures agreed to in Vilnius included the following:

  • Three new regional plans to defend NATO allies on all flanks, along with new command and control arrangements.
  • The intent to raise a new ‘Allied Reaction Force’,capable of deploying 300,000 troops within 30 days.
  • Canada offered to add 1200 troops to its contingent in Latvia, while Germany would send a permanent brigade of up to 4,000 troops to Lithuania in the future.
  • Enhancements were made to NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence posture, including rotating modern air defence systems across the eastern flank and increasing readiness. To further strengthen air exercises and activity, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania also signed a Declaration of Cooperation on cross-border airspace management.

Measures to deter hybrid threats included a new ‘Maritime Centre for the Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure’, a new cyber defence concept, a cyber defence pledge, ‘Virtual Cyber Incident Support Capability’ (VCISC), a NATO Space Centre of Excellence in France, and a commitment to protect energy infrastructure and secure energy supplies to military forces. NATO also opened a new Centre of Excellence for Climate Change and Security in Montreal, Canada.

In assessing geo-political developments, the Vilnius summit has rightly sensed the broad global pulse that is against war. It noted the disproportionate impact that conflict has on women and girls, including through conflict-related sexual violence. The summit recognised the critical importance of women’s full, equal, and meaningful participation in all aspects of peace and stability.  It has re-assured its members and those who are victims of revanchist and revisionist tendencies that NATO is committed to uphold international norms and rules. In deploring Russia, the summit also laid to rest any speculation or suggestion to implore Ukraine in surrendering its territory in exchange for peace on Russian terms. There is a growing recognition within NATO on the importance of the Indo-Pacific to security in the Euro-Atlantic. When NATO Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg said, “China is watching to see the price Russia pays, or the reward it receives, for its aggression,” it indicated that the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could not be ignored. Expectedly, the Chinese got spooked and its state media criticized the NATO summit.

In the Indian discourse, NATO has mostly been of peripheral importance and interest. China’s incorrigible behaviour and the strategic convergence between Russia & China including in the Indo-Pacific will reduce our strategic space and freedom. NATO’s interest in Indo-Pacific is therefore an opportunity that accords us more flexibility and options in dealing with China, even without joining the Alliance. Posting liaison officers from the Indian Armed Forces at NATO Headquarters in Brussels would be a good beginning in developing mutual understanding. Although many challenges remain, overall, the Vilnius summit was successful in many ways. Next year, NATO completes 75 years. In commemoration, a summit will be held in Washington DC. One hopes that the prolonged suffering of Ukrainians and most other nations impacted by the war ends by then, and peace prevails. NATO can then truly ‘celebrate’ its 75th anniversary.

The writer served in the IAF for over three decades. He holds an M.Phil in Defence and Management.

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