Amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the NATO summit in Vilnius, scheduled for July 11-12, is set to address a wide range of crucial issues with a unique and strong focus. This gathering marks the fourth summit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the urgency for increased cooperation within the alliance.
The significance of this summit is underscored by the exceptional security measures taken, including the deployment of three German Patriot air defense units and additional fighter jets. Vilnius, situated on NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank, requires heightened protection due to its proximity to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus.
According to reports in the public domain, one of the central topics of discussion at the summit will be NATO’s future relationship with Ukraine. Although President Volodymyr Zelenskiy seeks an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has made it clear that membership will not be granted while the conflict continues. Nonetheless, there is a divergence of opinions among allies regarding the timeline for Ukraine’s potential accession after the fighting ends.
To address this issue, there is growing support for a British proposal to allow Ukraine to bypass the Membership Action Plan (MAP) program, which establishes political, economic, and military requirements for NATO candidates. This approach could go beyond the 2008 Bucharest summit declaration that Ukraine would eventually become a member. The summit may also include a stronger statement affirming Ukraine’s rightful place in NATO or emphasizing the importance of Ukraine for trans-Atlantic security.
Another crucial aspect will be determining security assurances for Ukraine post-war. Although these assurances will be bilateral rather than issued by the alliance, they may involve continued military and financial aid to deter Russia from further aggression.
The summit will also review the first defense plans since the Cold War, outlining NATO’s response to a potential Russian attack. This represents a significant shift, as the alliance had not deemed large-scale defense plans necessary for decades. However, given the conflict in Ukraine, NATO now recognizes the need to be prepared for conflicts with peer adversaries like Russia.
Additionally, NATO will raise targets for ammunitions stockpiling, considering Ukraine’s increased consumption of shells. The alliance will also present plans for putting over 300,000 troops on high alert, a substantial increase from the previous 40,000, in order to effectively counter Russia.
Sweden’s bid to join NATO will be discussed, with hopes that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will lift his opposition. However, it remains uncertain whether Turkey will change its stance, as it accuses Sweden of harboring members of militant groups.
In summary, the NATO summit in Vilnius will be a significant gathering, reflecting the urgency to address critical issues amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.