Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia after a gap of five years. Just a few days earlier, he skipped the SCO meeting in Kazakhstan but decided to visit Moscow. This has raised questions about the timing and urgency of this visit.
FinancialExpress.com talked to Prof. Rajan Kumar, who teaches at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, to understand this issue. He has written extensively on this issue, and his book Re-emerging Russia: Structures, Institutions and Processes was published by Palgrave Macmillan.
Following are excerpts of the exclusive conversation:
What is the significance of this visit?
Modi’s visit to Moscow has drawn wide media attention worldwide for several reasons: first and foremost is the timing. Usually, Indo-Russia bilateral summits are meticulously planned and coordinated over months in advance. They used to take place towards the end of the year. But the current visit was announced at the eleventh hour. This would be Modi’s first visit to Russia in five years. His last visit was to Vladivostok in 2019. Second, after becoming the Prime Minister for the third time, this would be his first visit to a foreign country for bilateral purposes. His visit to Italy last month was for multilateral purposes i.e. the G7 Summit. Third, PM Modi’s visit to Moscow coincides with the Washington NATO Summit. And finally, just a few days earlier, the Prime Minister skipped the SCO meeting in Kazakhstan.
These developments sparked several speculations about the timing and urgency of Modi’s visit to Moscow. The official statement from the Ministry of External Affairs underlined that this was a continuation of the Annual Summit, which had not taken place since 2021, and one should not read anything beyond that. This statement explains the importance of Modi’s visit to Russia, but it does not answer the question of timing.
In my view, Modi’s visit to Moscow is an attempt to reassure Russia that the relationship is intact and that there has been no change in India’s stance. For some time, there were growing concerns, especially from the Russian side, that India was not prioritising its ties with Russia. Policymakers in Moscow suspected that this was being done under US duress. Experts began to talk openly about the strain in ties between the two countries. Therefore, it became imperative for New Delhi to dispel such apprehensions. Modi’s visit to Moscow will send a clear message to the world: Russia figures prominently in India’s strategic calculations, and India remains steadfast in its partnership with Russia, resisting any attempts by Western nations to influence or disrupt this engagement.
What are the issues to be discussed between the two leaders?
India’s ties with Russia are very comprehensive. There is no such parallel in global politics. In 2000, they signed the Strategic Partnership treaty, which was upgraded to a ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’ in 2010. The fact that they have an annual bilateral summit mechanism demonstrates the level of cooperation between the two countries. It’s an institutionalised partnership. Furthermore, they cooperate in several multilateral forums. Therefore, a broad spectrum of issues will be discussed, ranging from war in Ukraine to defence supplies, connectivity, energy trade, space, nuclear and cultural cooperation. Both countries will try to catch up from where they left off in the last summit in 2021.
Nonetheless, there are a few critical issues which require urgent attention from both sides. First is the issue of trade deficit and the payment from the Indian side. As is well known, India’s trade with Russia in the last financial year (2023-24) increased to US$65 billion. India’s imports were worth $60 billion, while exports were meagre US$4 billion. There is a mammoth trade imbalance between the two sides. Russia must buy more products from India to diminish this imbalance. Further, Russia insists on payment in hard currencies such as the dollar, euro or renminbi, while India insists on investing in India and buying more products from here.
The second important issue is the delay in the supply of weapons and spare parts because of Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine. This is a serious issue, and India would insist Russia to meet its commitments. Further, the issue of INSTC and maritime connectivity between Vladivostok and Chennai may also be discussed. There will be a status check and more MoUs on space and nuclear cooperation. Given Russia’s constraints at the moment, India will not insist much on S-400.
Will India push for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?
India has insisted on resolving the conflict through ‘dialogue and diplomacy’. Its official statements have made a few things clear: the sovereignty of a country should be respected, and disputes cannot be resolved through a war. Having said that India is cautious so far as the issue of ceasefire is concerned. India does not think that the existing milieu is conducive to a ceasefire. The United States has not brought up the topic of a ceasefire yet. It has initiated talks on a ceasefire in Gaza, but there is no such attempt in Ukraine. The US continues to supply weapons and financial support to Ukraine. Therefore, while Prime Minister Modi will undoubtedly discuss the conflict in Ukraine and its impact on the Global South, he will not insist on a ceasefire much. The ceasefire cannot be established even if Russia desires so, and India is aware of that predicament.
What about the recent progress on INSTC and Chabahar?
I think the INSTC is a vital connectivity project for the Eurasian region which can connect India with Russia and other Central Asian states. However, the war in Ukraine has impacted the vitality of the INSTC to a large extent. As planned earlier, through INSTC, India could have sent its products not only to Russia but also to Europe. Now, with the conflict between Europe and Russia over Ukraine, that is unlikely to happen in the near future. And that was one of the reasons why India joined the India-Middle East Economic Corridor project.
However, one of the positive impacts of the Ukraine war is that Russia’s energy trade with India has increased significantly. One is not certain if that can be sustained for the long term, but if that continues, then this route will be useful again. To offset the trade imbalance, India will have to export products to Russia at a competitive price. And with sanctions Russia will rely much more on India and China. Recently, Russia sent coal to India through the INSTC, which is an important milestone for this route.
About Chabahar, India is serious and has committed budgetary allocations too. India wants Chabahar to become part of the INSTC and that should not be a problem if Iran develops rail-road networks. However, Iran will come under renewed pressure if Trump becomes the President. India will have to negotiate with the US to skip secondary sanctions.
Final words on Modi-Putin meetings?
Prime Minister Modi and President Putin have met 16 times in the last ten years. They know each other well and share a personal camaraderie. The war in Ukraine disrupted their exchanges, which are set to resume with this meeting. They will likely meet again during the BRICS summit in Kazan in October. Therefore, what you are going to witness is a new beginning. The geopolitical situation will also be favourable for Indo-Russia ties in the coming months.