Modi 3.0: Navigating Coalition Politics and Bharat’s Geo-political Stance in a Multipolar World

By Prof Satish Kumar & Shiv Bhagwan Saharan

Following 2024, India’s eighteenth Lok Sabha (Lower House) election concluded, and once again, Narendra Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister of Bharat (India) along with his Council of Ministers on June 9, 2024. Now, Modi has become the second person to assume his third consecutive term in office after Jawaharlal Nehru, Bharat’s first Prime Minister. Modi’s swearing-in ceremony was attended by over 8,000 dignitaries, including leaders from India’s neighbouring countries: Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and the Indian Ocean region (Seychelles and Mauritius), with whom India shares close ties. Notably, all these seven nations have seen growing ties with China, India’s closest geopolitical rival in the global south. These countries’ geostrategic importance underscores India’s commitment to its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and the ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision. India affirms its dedication to regional stability, security, and shared prosperity.

For the first time in a decade, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) missed the majority mark of 272 seats, winning only 240 seats, which is significantly lower than in the previous election of 2019. However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has been formed under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a coalition government along with smaller parties like TDP, JD(U), and other allies. While Modi 3.0 would be in danger only if both TDP and JD(U) decide to pull the rug. But the BJP has a track record of managing successful coalition governments as previously under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his deputy, Lal Krishna Advani.

While the lower seats of the Modi-led BJP do not signify the end of its governance agenda focused on India’s development and cultural revival of Bharat, Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam—the world is one family—is always advocated by PM Modi. The BJP is prepared to negotiate respectfully with its allies to ensure the continuity of its policy and political, geopolitical, and economic agendas. RSS ideologue Ram Madhav, writing in the Indian Express, said, “The victory of the Narendra Modi-led NDA for the third time will be a parliamentary record. However, the situation calls for greater accommodation and responsible politics from both sides. Mahatma Gandhi is remembered for many things, but he was the first to introduce coalition politics in the pre-independence era. His success lay in humility and civility, qualities that the Indian polity is in dire need of. Coalitions are great levellers. Hope we witness the restoration of those virtues in our polity in the coming years”.

Just four days after his oath-taking ceremony, Modi had proved his majority in the Lok Sabha and visited Italy, where Prime Minister Georgia Meloni hosted the G-7 summit from June 13-15, when the world was facing multiple challenges. India has been invited 11 times as a guest member, and Modi himself has attended five summits with major economies. During this time, he spoke about the Lok Sabha elections, calling them the “Victory of the democratic world.” Additionally, Modi focused on the Global South’s concerns, where many uncertainties and tensions are rooted. Meanwhile, G-7 states, including G7+1 India, have been facing similar challenges due to the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war. The Gaza war in the Middle East has also impacted the India-G20-led project IMEC (The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor).

The current conflict in the Middle East, known as the Israel-Palestine conflict or ‘Gaza war,’ began on October 7, 2023, with a coordinated surprise rocket strike on Israel’s southern and central regions from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. Over 38,000 Palestinians have been killed, including children and women, along with more than 490,000 Palestinians experiencing catastrophic food shortages, and nearly three-quarters of Gaza rendered uninhabitable since the October 7 attacks. India has always advocated the resumption of ‘direct negotiations’ toward establishing a sovereign, independent, and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders, side by side in peace with Israel.

Moreover, India displayed its diplomatic prowess, universal welfare, and concern during its 2023 presidency of the G20, projecting intent and sincerity to take everyone along for the global good. In the Group of G7+1, India has already surpassed four major economies in terms of GDP. Its upward trajectory and the quest to be a ‘rule-maker and shaper’ make it well-placed to craft and promote its principled foreign policy while reiterating to the Russians and others that “this is not an era of war” and that dialogue and diplomacy can only lead to peace. During his bilaterals with key leaders, including Zelensky, PM Modi conveyed the crux of the Indian approach to global peace and solidarity, as the Global South and its core concerns and interests remain India’s priority.

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India, under PM Modi’s leadership, has continuously maintained a position of strategic neutrality on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. It has also abstained from voting on a UN resolution condemning Russia’s aggression, citing its historical ties with Russia and its desire to avoid antagonizing China, which supports Russia. India has expressed its support for peaceful conflict resolution through dialogue and diplomacy.

Regarding a multipolar world, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated at the Nikkei Asia 2024 Future of Asia Forum, “The transformation of India is critical to strengthening multipolarity in Asia itself, a prerequisite for a multipolar world. India’s growing weight will ensure that the overall balance in the world order remains in favour of freedom, openness, transparency, and a rules-based order.” However, the Western world disagrees with multipolarity, which is described by the realist school of international relations, rooted in the Hobbesian understanding of society and inter-state relations. In the Hobbesian state, humankind is essentially selfish, and life outside society would be ‘solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.’

We argue that powerful states such as Bharat act like Vishwamitra and Vishwaguru. Meanwhile, PM Modi called Bharat Vishwamitra, a friend of the world. In the later Vedic period, Vishwaguru referred to Indian religious scholars, meaning the teacher or Guru of the world. Historically, Bharat has inclined more toward spiritual and moral states rather than military or coercion, and their civilizational values reflect Bharat’s foreign policy under Modi’s leadership.