Kartike Garg
The recent assassination attempt on the Japanese Prime Minister is projecting a darker picture of Japan and revealing that everything may not be rosy.
On April 15, the PM of Japan survived an assassination attempt by a smoke bomb at an outdoor rally in Wakayama city. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was unharmed and no other injuries were reported from the incident. This incident raises concerns about the political stability of Japan and the efficiency of its security forces. It comes on the heels of the assassination of Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last year during an outdoor public rally. The declining popularity of Kishida is also a cause for concern.
The declining popularity of Kishida
This assassination attempt on Kishida happened at a time when his approval rating is less than 30% in a recent survey of a company called Morning Consult. Former Prime Minister of Japan Yoshihide Suga resigned in October 2021 after he became very unpopular among the Japanese people for his policies. Since October 2021, Kishida is heading the Japanese government for Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Recently Japanese government’s decision to increase the defense budget up to 2 per cent of the GDP is not taken very enthusiastically by everyone in Japan. With the increasing revisionist tendency of China in the Sea of Japan and South China
Sea, the Japanese Self-Defense Force needs to be prepared for any future conflicts. The situation around Taiwan is especially very tense with the recent visit of the Taiwanese president to the United States and meeting with the speaker of the house Kevin McCarthy. There is growing understanding in Japan to increase the defense budget, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Policymakers fear in case of an invasion of Taiwan by China, the security dynamics will change completely in the region, as China has territorial disputes with Japan over the Senkaku islands. While what was the clear reason for the assassination attempt on Kishida is not clear yet, his disapproval rating as the PM of Japan shows that not everyone is happy with his domestic and foreign policies.
The assassination of Shinzo Abe
Last year former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe was assassinated by a man named Tetsuya Yamagani (41) who is former Navy personnel with a homemade gun at an outdoor rally in the city of Nara. Japan has one of the strongest gun control regulations in the world. Shinzo Abe who was the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history took voluntary retirement from politics due to health reasons. While he was popular among the Japanese people, there was a section of people in Japan who did not subscribe to his ultra-nationalist style of governance. Though the assassinator confessed he
was angry at Abe because of his affiliation with a cult that was responsible for his mom losing all savings.
Breaking of Japanese Society
Japan is one of the most advanced countries in the world in terms of human development and technological and infrastructure development too. But in recent times it has been noticed that there is growing resentment among the young population of Japan. The birth rate is decreasing and the suicides among Japanese are increasing. The tendency of living in isolation is one of the biggest reasons for that. According to the World Happiness Index, Japan is one of the
most peaceful and happy countries in the world. But not everything is rosy in Japan, the living standard is decreasing and this trend is witnessed at a greater pace after the Covid-19 pandemic. Inflation is rising to make it harder for middle-class people to cope. This is also one of the biggest reasons for resentment against the government that they are not doing enough for the
Japanese people. In this background increasing the defense budget to 2 per cent of GDP is not considered a wise idea according to many Japanese people.
Japan is considered to be one of the few countries in the world where the masses directly influence policy-making, no leader in Japan dares to go against public opinion. Against this backdrop, the assassination attempt raises many questions for Japanese leadership and for LDP also which is ruling Japan for a very long time.
Lessons for India
Though Indian Prime Minister is protected by Personnel Security Guards (PSG) specially created for the security of the Prime Minister after the assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. There was also a breach of PM’s security last year in Punjab. This shows that state leaders are constantly under threat and there is a need to integrate intelligence at the national and local levels. While the Indian prime minister has the overall highest approval rating among the world leaders, the issue of breach should not be taken lightly.
India will be looking closely at the situation in Japan as we enjoy great strategic relations with Japan. Though instability in domestic politics might affect Japan’s engagement at the world level, it will be interesting to see how LDP’s leadership will maneuver this tough political landscape on the domestic front.
The author is pursuing Master’s programme at International Relations and Area Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
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